FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Mark

Brink

DMDenmark · FC Nordsjaelland

№ 293279Established €2.4M −0.18

Player dossierSuperliga

MarkBrink

DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield

Club
FC Nordsjaelland
League
Superliga
Nationality
Denmark
Age
28
Height
177 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
25 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Brink at €2M. Model A, which never saw Brink during training, estimates €2.4M: the market value is 17% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.20. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.1M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.18A €2.4M▼ −0.04B €2.1M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
49
Minutes
3,752
Goals
0
Assists
2
Started
45/49
Min / app
77
Cards
6Y 1R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Brink…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €2M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €2MModel A €2.4M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Mark Brink's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 10th, Assists per 90 28th, Minutes, two years 70th, Starts 89th, Minutes, last 365 days 50th, European club minutes 70th10thGoals28thAssists70thMinutes89thStarts50thRecent70thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

92% this player69% midfielder median89th percentile

7%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Aug 2016
Peak
€2M
Jun 2025
Model target
€2M
May 2026
Valuations
23
2 club changes
May 2026€2MFC NordsjaellandValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €2M, FC Nordsjaelland. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2016-08-12€100kEsbjerg fB
2016-12-12€100kEsbjerg fB
2017-06-21€150kEsbjerg fB
2017-12-18€250kEsbjerg fB
2018-06-07€350kEsbjerg fB
2018-12-21€350kEsbjerg fB
2019-06-08€500kEsbjerg fB
2019-12-22€400kEsbjerg fB
2020-04-08€350kSilkeborg IF
2020-07-31€350kSilkeborg IF
2020-12-23€400kSilkeborg IF
2021-06-04€500kSilkeborg IF
2021-10-06€600kSilkeborg IF
2021-12-28€700kSilkeborg IF
2022-06-20€700kSilkeborg IF
2022-12-22€700kSilkeborg IF
2023-06-26€700kSilkeborg IF
2023-12-21€700kSilkeborg IF
2024-06-10€1MSilkeborg IF
2024-12-09€1.7MFC Nordsjaelland
2025-06-16€2MFC Nordsjaelland
2025-12-15€2MFC Nordsjaelland
2026-05-25€2MFC Nordsjaelland

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.182

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Superliga256 players · median €800k

Valued above 70% of the 256 Superliga players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€2MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 46% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€2MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Brink appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).