FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Xeka

CMPortugal · GD Estoril Praia

№ 290256Emerging €555k +0.37

Player dossierLiga Portugal

Xeka

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
GD Estoril Praia
League
Liga Portugal
Nationality
Portugal
Age
31
Height
185 cm
Foot
Both
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Xeka at €800k. Model A, which never saw Xeka during training, estimates €555k: the market value is 44% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.44. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €553k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.37A €555k▲ +0.37B €553k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
26
Minutes
1,600
Goals
2
Assists
1
Started
20/26
Min / app
62
Cards
7Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Xeka…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €800k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €800kModel A €555k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Xeka's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 60th, Assists per 90 32nd, Minutes, two years 27th, Starts 65th, Minutes, last 365 days 18th, European club minutes 30th60thGoals32ndAssists27thMinutes65thStarts18thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

77% this player69% midfielder median65th percentile

7%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€250k
Nov 2013
Peak
€10M
Jun 2019
Model target
€800k
May 2026
Valuations
27
9 club changes
May 2026€800kGD Estoril PraiaValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €800k, GD Estoril Praia. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2013-11-08€250kSC Braga B
2015-07-31€150kSC Covilhã
2016-03-14€200kSC Covilhã
2016-09-30€300kSC Braga B
2017-02-22€1MLOSC Lille
2017-06-01€1.3MLOSC Lille
2017-10-12€4MDijon FCO
2018-01-24€5.5MDijon FCO
2018-06-04€5.5MDijon FCO
2018-12-17€5.5MLOSC Lille
2019-03-07€9MLOSC Lille
2019-06-03€10MLOSC Lille
2019-12-19€9MLOSC Lille
2020-04-08€7MLOSC Lille
2020-10-15€7MLOSC Lille
2021-06-04€8MLOSC Lille
2021-12-16€9MLOSC Lille
2022-05-30€9MLOSC Lille
2022-11-02€9MStade Rennais FC
2023-06-27€6MStade Rennais FC
2023-10-25€5MWithout Club
2024-03-29€3MWithout Club
2024-05-02€3MAl-Sadd SC
2024-12-19€2MGD Estoril Praia
2025-05-30€2MGD Estoril Praia
2025-12-18€1MGD Estoril Praia
2026-05-28€800kGD Estoril Praia

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.366

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M

Valued above 35% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€800kSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 27% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€800kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Xeka appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).