FairValue

Checking model

Esc
  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Andoni

Gorosabel

RBSpain · Athletic Bilbao

№ 289255Established €3.6M −0.17

Player dossierLaLiga

AndoniGorosabel

RBRight-BackDefender

Club
Athletic Bilbao
League
LaLiga
Nationality
Spain
Age
29
Height
174 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
5 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Gorosabel at €3M. Model A, which never saw Gorosabel during training, estimates €3.6M: the market value is 16% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.19. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €8.4M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.17A €3.6M▼ −1.03B €8.4M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
64
Minutes
4,036
Goals
0
Assists
4
Started
46/64
Min / app
63
Cards
11Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Gorosabel…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €3M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €3MModel A €3.6M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Andoni Gorosabel's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 74th, Minutes, two years 70th, Starts 30th, Minutes, last 365 days 63rd, European club minutes 88th18thGoals74thAssists70thMinutes30thStarts63rdRecent88thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

23% this player0% defender median88th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Aug 2016
Peak
€10M
Jan 2021
Model target
€3M
Jun 2026
Valuations
25
4 club changes
Jun 2026€3MAthletic BilbaoValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €3M, Athletic Bilbao. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2016-08-01€50kReal Unión Club
2016-10-27€150kReal Unión Club
2017-02-02€150kReal Unión Club
2017-06-30€200kReal Sociedad B
2018-01-01€1MReal Sociedad B
2018-05-30€1MReal Sociedad B
2018-12-21€2.5MReal Sociedad
2019-06-11€1.5MReal Sociedad
2019-12-20€2MReal Sociedad
2020-04-08€1.6MReal Sociedad
2020-10-08€3MReal Sociedad
2020-11-23€5MReal Sociedad
2021-01-05€10MReal Sociedad
2021-06-10€10MReal Sociedad
2021-12-30€8MReal Sociedad
2022-06-03€10MReal Sociedad
2022-11-07€10MReal Sociedad
2023-06-13€9MReal Sociedad
2023-10-13€4MDeportivo Alavés
2023-12-22€2.5MDeportivo Alavés
2024-06-07€5MDeportivo Alavés
2024-12-27€5MAthletic Bilbao
2025-06-09€5MAthletic Bilbao
2025-12-12€4MAthletic Bilbao
2026-06-05€3MAthletic Bilbao

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.172

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 40% of the 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€3MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 59% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€3MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Gorosabel appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).