FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Donny van de

Beek

CMNetherlands · Girona FC

№ 288255Emerging €3.4M −0.63

Player dossierLaLiga

Donny van deBeek

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
Girona FC
League
LaLiga
Nationality
Netherlands
Age
29
Height
184 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
5 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Beek at €1.8M. Model A, which never saw Beek during training, estimates €3.4M: the market value is 47% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.88. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €3.6M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.63A €3.4M▼ −0.71B €3.6M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
37
Minutes
2,015
Goals
3
Assists
2
Started
23/37
Min / app
54
Cards
7Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Beek…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.8M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1.8MModel A €3.4M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Donny van de Beek's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 67th, Assists per 90 48th, Minutes, two years 37th, Starts 37th, Minutes, last 365 days 2nd, European club minutes 88th67thGoals48thAssists37thMinutes37thStarts2ndRecent88thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

23% this player0% midfielder median88th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€25k
Jan 2015
Peak
€55M
Dec 2019
Model target
€1.8M
Jun 2026
Valuations
37
4 club changes
Jun 2026€1.8MGirona FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €1.8M, Girona FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2015-01-26€25kAjax Amsterdam U21
2015-02-21€200kAjax Amsterdam U21
2015-07-01€250kAjax Amsterdam U21
2016-02-05€1MAjax Amsterdam
2016-07-15€1.5MAjax Amsterdam
2017-01-18€2MAjax Amsterdam
2017-06-07€4MAjax Amsterdam
2017-10-26€5.5MAjax Amsterdam
2018-01-17€9MAjax Amsterdam
2018-06-12€14MAjax Amsterdam
2018-10-04€18MAjax Amsterdam
2018-12-28€20MAjax Amsterdam
2019-03-13€25MAjax Amsterdam
2019-06-12€40MAjax Amsterdam
2019-09-19€50MAjax Amsterdam
2019-12-18€55MAjax Amsterdam
2020-04-08€44MAjax Amsterdam
2020-10-13€44MManchester United
2020-12-17€40MManchester United
2021-03-18€35MManchester United
2021-05-27€30MManchester United
2021-10-05€25MManchester United
2021-12-23€25MManchester United
2022-06-15€25MManchester United
2022-09-15€20MManchester United
2022-11-03€20MManchester United
2023-03-16€17MManchester United
2023-06-20€13MManchester United
2023-10-09€10MManchester United
2023-12-19€9MManchester United
2024-03-27€7MEintracht Frankfurt
2024-05-29€5MEintracht Frankfurt
2024-12-27€7.5MGirona FC
2025-06-09€5MGirona FC
2025-10-02€3MGirona FC
2025-12-12€2MGirona FC
2026-06-05€1.8MGirona FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.633

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 25% of the 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€1.8MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 44% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1.8MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Beek appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).