FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Sandro

Lima

CFBrazil · FC Alverca

№ 284739Emerging €123k +0.20

Player dossierLiga Portugal

SandroLima

CFCentre-ForwardAttack

Club
FC Alverca
League
Liga Portugal
Nationality
Brazil
Age
35
Height
186 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Lima at €150k. Model A, which never saw Lima during training, estimates €123k: the market value is 22% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.22. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €197k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.20A €123k▼ −0.27B €197k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
30
Minutes
1,446
Goals
6
Assists
2
Started
16/30
Min / app
48
Cards
2Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Lima…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €150k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €150kModel A €123k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Sandro Lima's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 72nd, Assists per 90 41st, Minutes, two years 30th, Starts 40th, Minutes, last 365 days 56th, European club minutes 28th72ndGoals41stAssists30thMinutes40thStarts56thRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.37 this player0.26 attacker median72nd percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●1.17

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€200k
Oct 2013
Peak
€900k
Dec 2019
Model target
€150k
May 2026
Valuations
27
12 club changes
May 2026€150kFC AlvercaValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €150k, FC Alverca. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2013-10-08€200kRio Ave FC
2015-07-31€400kGD Chaves
2016-03-14€400kGD Chaves
2016-09-30€300kAcadémico Viseu FC
2017-06-30€300kAcadémico Viseu FC
2017-09-08€550kAcadémico Viseu FC
2018-02-23€625kAcadémico Viseu FC
2018-06-29€675kAcadémico Viseu FC
2019-02-12€600kGD Estoril Praia
2019-06-29€650kGD Estoril Praia
2019-12-30€900kGil Vicente FC
2020-04-08€725kGil Vicente FC
2020-12-26€450kTianjin Jinmen Tiger
2021-03-16€400kGenclerbirligi Ankara
2021-05-21€325kGenclerbirligi Ankara
2022-01-17€375kGenclerbirligi Ankara
2022-06-10€375kGenclerbirligi Ankara
2022-12-27€350kGwangju FC
2023-06-23€250kWithout Club
2023-10-20€250kManisa FK
2023-12-29€250kManisa FK
2024-03-26€250kManisa FK
2024-06-13€200kManisa FK
2024-10-16€175kPendikspor
2025-06-27€150kAtlético Clube Goianiense
2025-12-18€150kFC Alverca
2026-05-28€150kFC Alverca

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.199

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M

Valued above 4% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€150kSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 2% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€150kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Lima appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).