FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Carles

Pérez

RWSpain · Aris Thessaloniki

№ 282810Emerging €1.2M +0.44

Player dossierSuper League

CarlesPérez

RWRight WingerAttack

Club
Aris Thessaloniki
League
Super League
Nationality
Spain
Age
28
Height
173 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Pérez at €1.8M. Model A, which never saw Pérez during training, estimates €1.2M: the market value is 55% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.55. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.3M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.44A €1.2M▲ +0.32B €1.3M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
52
Minutes
3,085
Goals
3
Assists
0
Started
35/52
Min / app
59
Cards
6Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Pérez…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.8M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1.8MModel A €1.2M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Carles Pérez's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 12th, Assists per 90 6th, Minutes, two years 68th, Starts 64th, Minutes, last 365 days 58th, European club minutes 60th12thGoals6thAssists68thMinutes64thStarts58thRecent60thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

3,085 this player2,242 attacker median68th percentile

450peer deciles · median line · this player ●8,788

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€200k
Aug 2017
Peak
€10M
Sept 2019
Model target
€1.8M
Jun 2026
Valuations
28
5 club changes
Jun 2026€1.8MAris ThessalonikiValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €1.8M, Aris Thessaloniki. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2017-08-17€200kFC Barcelona B
2018-01-01€500kFC Barcelona B
2018-03-02€1.5MFC Barcelona B
2018-05-30€1.5MFC Barcelona B
2018-08-07€1.5MFC Barcelona B
2019-02-19€1.5MFC Barcelona B
2019-06-29€1.5MFC Barcelona B
2019-09-10€10MFC Barcelona
2019-12-20€10MFC Barcelona
2020-04-08€9MAS Roma
2020-08-25€9MAS Roma
2020-12-29€9MAS Roma
2021-06-03€8MAS Roma
2021-12-28€7MAS Roma
2022-03-15€6MAS Roma
2022-06-07€6MAS Roma
2022-11-07€4MCelta de Vigo
2023-03-23€5MCelta de Vigo
2023-06-13€5MCelta de Vigo
2023-12-22€4MCelta de Vigo
2024-03-21€3MCelta de Vigo
2024-06-07€2.5MCelta de Vigo
2024-10-11€3MGetafe CF
2024-12-27€3MGetafe CF
2025-03-21€2.5MGetafe CF
2025-06-09€2MGetafe CF
2025-12-12€1.8MAris Thessaloniki
2026-06-04€1.8MAris Thessaloniki

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.441

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Super League356 players · median €600k

Valued above 77% of the 356 Super League players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€1.8MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 43% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€1.8MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Pérez appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).