FairValue

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Timo

Becker

CBGermany · FC Schalke 04

№ 282349Emerging €1.8M −0.19

Player dossierBundesliga

TimoBecker

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
FC Schalke 04
League
Bundesliga
Nationality
Germany
Age
28
Height
190 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
16 Dec 2025

Reading the valuation

The market values Becker at €1.5M. Model A, which never saw Becker during training, estimates €1.8M: the market value is 17% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.21. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.1M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.19A €1.8M▲ +0.36B €1.1M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
32
Minutes
2,596
Goals
0
Assists
2
Started
30/32
Min / app
81
Cards
2Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Becker…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1.5MModel A €1.8M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Timo Becker's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 67th, Minutes, two years 45th, Starts 80th, Minutes, last 365 days 41st, European club minutes 30th18thGoals67thAssists45thMinutes80thStarts41stRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

94% this player83% defender median80th percentile

18%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€25k
Jan 2016
Peak
€2M
Jun 2024
Model target
€1.5M
Dec 2025
Valuations
30
6 club changes
Dec 2025€1.5MFC Schalke 04Valuation the model is trained to reproduce

Dec 2025: €1.5M, FC Schalke 04. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2016-01-15€25kRot-Weiss Essen U19
2016-04-01€50kRot-Weiss Essen U19
2016-07-15€50kRot-Weiss Essen
2016-11-20€50kRot-Weiss Essen
2017-07-01€50kRot-Weiss Essen
2018-02-03€100kRot-Weiss Essen
2018-07-15€125kRot-Weiss Essen
2018-10-08€150kRot-Weiss Essen
2019-02-05€150kRot-Weiss Essen
2019-04-02€125kRot-Weiss Essen
2019-07-15€125kRot-Weiss Essen
2020-01-21€150kFC Schalke 04 II
2020-03-11€800kFC Schalke 04 II
2020-04-08€650kFC Schalke 04 II
2020-07-08€1MFC Schalke 04 II
2020-11-26€500kFC Schalke 04
2021-02-10€500kFC Schalke 04
2021-03-31€1MFC Schalke 04
2021-06-09€1.3MFC Schalke 04
2021-10-13€700kFC Schalke 04
2021-12-15€450kFC Schalke 04
2022-06-16€600kFC Hansa Rostock
2022-11-30€600kHolstein Kiel
2023-06-28€800kHolstein Kiel
2023-12-15€1MHolstein Kiel
2024-03-22€1.5MHolstein Kiel
2024-06-06€2MHolstein Kiel
2024-12-20€2MHolstein Kiel
2025-06-05€1.5MHolstein Kiel
2025-12-16€1.5MFC Schalke 04

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.191

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Bundesliga451 players · median €5M

Valued above 12% of the 451 Bundesliga players.

€300k€2M€15M€100M€1.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 43% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Becker appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).