FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Georgiy

Melkadze

CFRussia · Akhmat Grozny

№ 281552Emerging €2M −0.10

Player dossierPremier Liga

GeorgiyMelkadze

CFCentre-ForwardAttack

Club
Akhmat Grozny
League
Premier Liga
Nationality
Russia
Age
29
Height
183 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
26 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Melkadze at €1.8M. Model A, which never saw Melkadze during training, estimates €2M: the market value is 10% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.11. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.10A €2M▼ −0.09B €2M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
46
Minutes
3,318
Goals
10
Assists
7
Started
38/46
Min / app
72
Cards
7Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Melkadze…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.8M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1.8MModel A €2M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Georgiy Melkadze's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 52nd, Assists per 90 67th, Minutes, two years 71st, Starts 86th, Minutes, last 365 days 82nd, European club minutes 28th52ndGoals67thAssists71stMinutes86thStarts82ndRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

83% this player59% attacker median86th percentile

5%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€350k
Jul 2015
Peak
€1.8M
May 2026
Model target
€1.8M
May 2026
Valuations
29
10 club changes
May 2026€1.8MAkhmat GroznyValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €1.8M, Akhmat Grozny. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2015-07-24€350kSpartak 2 Moscow
2016-01-10€450kSpartak 2 Moscow
2016-07-01€600kSpartak 2 Moscow
2016-12-24€800kSpartak 2 Moscow
2017-06-01€900kSpartak 2 Moscow
2017-12-23€800kFC Tosno
2018-06-06€800kFC Tosno
2018-12-20€700kSpartak 2 Moscow
2019-06-14€700kSpartak Moscow
2019-12-23€1.2MFK Tambov
2020-03-30€1.5MFK Tambov
2020-04-08€1.2MFK Tambov
2020-07-29€1.5MPFK Tambov
2020-12-29€1.5MAkhmat Grozny
2021-06-02€1.2MAkhmat Grozny
2021-12-29€800kSpartak Moscow
2022-06-02€800kFC Sochi
2022-11-21€1MFC Sochi
2023-06-14€800kFC Sochi
2023-10-05€600kFC Sochi
2023-12-13€500kFC Sochi
2024-05-22€350kFC Kolkheti-1913 Poti
2024-09-25€300kFC Kolkheti-1913 Poti
2024-12-23€300kFC Kolkheti-1913 Poti
2025-03-19€500kAkhmat Grozny
2025-06-04€700kAkhmat Grozny
2025-12-16€900kAkhmat Grozny
2026-03-25€1.2MAkhmat Grozny
2026-05-26€1.8MAkhmat Grozny

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.101

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liga412 players · median €1M

Valued above 64% of the 412 Premier Liga players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€1.8MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 43% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€1.8MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Melkadze appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).