FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Scott

Wright

RWScotland · Dundee FC

№ 276914Emerging €368k +0.08

Player dossierPremiership

ScottWright

RWRight WingerAttack

Club
Dundee FC
League
Premiership
Nationality
Scotland
Age
28
Height
176 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
20 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Wright at €400k. Model A, which never saw Wright during training, estimates €368k: the market value is 9% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.09. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €724k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.08A €368k▼ −0.59B €724k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
13
Minutes
522
Goals
1
Assists
1
Started
5/13
Min / app
40
Cards
1Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Wright…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €400k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €400kModel A €368k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Scott Wright's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 29th, Assists per 90 60th, Minutes, two years 3rd, Starts 19th, Minutes, last 365 days 5th, European club minutes 69th29thGoals60thAssists3rdMinutes19thStarts5thRecent69thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

9% this player0% attacker median69th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€75k
Feb 2017
Peak
€2M
Jun 2022
Model target
€400k
May 2026
Valuations
22
3 club changes
May 2026€400kDundee FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €400k, Dundee FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2017-02-14€75kAberdeen FC
2018-03-04€200kAberdeen FC
2018-08-08€200kAberdeen FC
2019-01-03€200kAberdeen FC
2019-08-20€350kAberdeen FC
2020-02-05€350kAberdeen FC
2020-04-08€300kAberdeen FC
2020-07-21€300kAberdeen FC
2021-01-18€600kAberdeen FC
2021-06-28€600kRangers FC
2021-12-31€1MRangers FC
2022-06-27€2MRangers FC
2022-12-13€2MRangers FC
2023-06-26€1.5MRangers FC
2023-09-22€1.2MRangers FC
2023-12-05€1.2MRangers FC
2024-05-30€1.2MRangers FC
2024-12-27€1MBirmingham City
2025-06-18€800kBirmingham City
2025-12-03€700kBirmingham City
2026-03-05€600kDundee FC
2026-05-20€400kDundee FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.084

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premiership311 players · median €400k

Valued above 50% of the 311 Premiership players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€400kSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 11% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€400kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Wright appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).