FairValue

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Dorukhan

Toköz

DMTürkiye · Kayserispor

№ 275935Emerging €445k +0.45

Player dossierSüper Lig

DorukhanToköz

DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield

Club
Kayserispor
League
Süper Lig
Nationality
Türkiye
Age
30
Height
180 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
21 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Toköz at €700k. Model A, which never saw Toköz during training, estimates €445k: the market value is 57% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.57. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €516k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.45A €445k▲ +0.31B €516k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
45
Minutes
1,913
Goals
0
Assists
0
Started
23/45
Min / app
43
Cards
8Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Toköz…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €700k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €700kModel A €445k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Dorukhan Toköz's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 10th, Assists per 90 8th, Minutes, two years 34th, Starts 23rd, Minutes, last 365 days 43rd, European club minutes 30th10thGoals8thAssists34thMinutes23rdStarts43rdRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

1,344 this player1,541 midfielder median43rd percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,800

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Jul 2016
Peak
€7M
Jun 2022
Model target
€700k
May 2026
Valuations
32
5 club changes
May 2026€700kKayserisporValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €700k, Kayserispor. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2016-07-15€100kEskisehirspor
2017-01-09€100kEskisehirspor
2017-06-30€500kEskisehirspor
2018-02-05€650kEskisehirspor
2018-05-30€700kEskisehirspor
2019-01-04€1.8MBesiktas JK
2019-03-27€3.5MBesiktas JK
2019-06-04€5.5MBesiktas JK
2019-10-04€6.5MBesiktas JK
2020-01-03€6MBesiktas JK
2020-04-08€4.8MBesiktas JK
2020-08-04€5MBesiktas JK
2020-12-23€6MBesiktas JK
2021-03-16€5MBesiktas JK
2021-05-25€4.7MBesiktas JK
2021-10-12€3.5MTrabzonspor
2022-01-04€4.5MTrabzonspor
2022-03-31€5.5MTrabzonspor
2022-06-01€7MTrabzonspor
2022-10-27€6.5MTrabzonspor
2023-03-14€5.5MTrabzonspor
2023-06-08€5MTrabzonspor
2023-09-27€4.2MAdana Demirspor
2023-12-21€3.5MAdana Demirspor
2024-03-15€2.5MAdana Demirspor
2024-05-31€2.1MAdana Demirspor
2024-10-04€1.5MEyüpspor
2024-12-23€1.4MEyüpspor
2025-03-20€1.2MEyüpspor
2025-06-18€1MEyüpspor
2025-12-17€800kKayserispor
2026-05-21€700kKayserispor

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.452

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Süper Lig428 players · median €1.2M

Valued above 29% of the 428 Süper Lig players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€700kSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 23% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€700kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Toköz appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).