Marlon
CBBrazil · Shakhtar Donetsk
Player dossierPremier Liha
Marlon
CBCentre-BackDefender
- Club
- Shakhtar Donetsk
- League
- Premier Liha
- Nationality
- Brazil
- Age
- 30
- Height
- 182 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 2 Jun 2026
Premier LihaReading the valuation
The market values Marlon at €2.5M. Model A, which never saw Marlon during training, estimates €1.4M: the market value is 75% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.75. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.3M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 17
- Minutes
- 917
- Goals
- 0
- Assists
- 2
- Started
- 12/17
- Min / app
- 54
- Cards
- 1Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Marlon…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €2.5M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders
Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)
Assists per 90
Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.
0.20 this player0.04 defender median95th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €500k
- Aug 2014
- Peak
- €10M
- Jul 2018
- Model target
- €2.5M
- Jun 2026
- Valuations
- 33
- 10 club changes
Jun 2026: €2.5M, Shakhtar Donetsk. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2014-08-06 | €500k | Fluminense Football Club |
| 2015-02-01 | €2M | Fluminense Football Club |
| 2015-05-31 | €3M | Fluminense Football Club |
| 2015-09-11 | €5M | Fluminense Football Club |
| 2015-12-15 | €5M | Fluminense Football Club |
| 2016-05-27 | €5M | Fluminense Football Club |
| 2016-08-01 | €3.5M | FC Barcelona B |
| 2017-02-02 | €3.5M | FC Barcelona B |
| 2017-06-30 | €5M | Fluminense Football Club |
| 2018-01-24 | €8M | OGC Nice |
| 2018-06-04 | €6M | OGC Nice |
| 2018-07-12 | €10M | FC Barcelona |
| 2018-12-20 | €10M | US Sassuolo |
| 2019-06-06 | €10M | US Sassuolo |
| 2019-12-12 | €8M | US Sassuolo |
| 2020-04-08 | €6.5M | US Sassuolo |
| 2020-08-25 | €6.5M | US Sassuolo |
| 2020-12-29 | €6.5M | US Sassuolo |
| 2021-06-03 | €6.5M | US Sassuolo |
| 2021-09-03 | €10M | Shakhtar Donetsk |
| 2021-12-20 | €10M | Shakhtar Donetsk |
| 2022-05-18 | €10M | Shakhtar Donetsk |
| 2022-11-11 | €7.5M | AC Monza |
| 2023-06-15 | €6M | AC Monza |
| 2023-12-11 | €5M | Fluminense Football Club |
| 2024-03-28 | €5M | Fluminense Football Club |
| 2024-06-17 | €5M | Fluminense Football Club |
| 2024-09-26 | €4M | Los Angeles FC |
| 2024-12-12 | €3.5M | Los Angeles FC |
| 2025-06-05 | €3M | Los Angeles FC |
| 2025-12-18 | €3M | Shakhtar Donetsk |
| 2026-03-23 | €2.5M | Shakhtar Donetsk |
| 2026-06-02 | €2.5M | Shakhtar Donetsk |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- non-UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.557
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Premier Liha414 players · median €400k
Valued above 89% of the 414 Premier Liha players.
See them in the Explorer →Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M
Valued above 54% of the 2,065 defenders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Marlon appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- BuyalskyiAMDynamo Kyiv · Premier Liha€2.5M
- KabaevLWDynamo Kyiv · Premier Liha€2.5M
- MykhaylichenkoLBPolissya Zhytomyr · Premier Liha€2.5M
- DubinchakLBDynamo Kyiv · Premier Liha€2.5M
- GraditCBRC Lens · defenders€2.5M
- MainkaCB1.FC Heidenheim 1846 · defenders€2.5M
- CoufalRBTSG 1899 Hoffenheim · defenders€2.5M
- StarkCBSV Werder Bremen · defenders€2.5M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).