FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Nicolas Moumi

Ngamaleu

LWCameroon · Dynamo Moscow

№ 266768Established €1.8M +0.35

Player dossierPremier Liga

Nicolas MoumiNgamaleu

LWLeft WingerAttack

Club
Dynamo Moscow
League
Premier Liga
Nationality
Cameroon
Age
31
Height
181 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
26 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Ngamaleu at €2.5M. Model A, which never saw Ngamaleu during training, estimates €1.8M: the market value is 42% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.42. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.1M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.35A €1.8M▲ +0.80B €1.1M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
59
Minutes
3,583
Goals
12
Assists
8
Started
41/59
Min / app
61
Cards
8Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Ngamaleu…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €2.5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €2.5MModel A €1.8M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Nicolas Moumi Ngamaleu's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 58th, Assists per 90 70th, Minutes, two years 75th, Starts 67th, Minutes, last 365 days 66th, European club minutes 28th58thGoals70thAssists75thMinutes67thStarts66thRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

3,583 this player2,242 attacker median75th percentile

450peer deciles · median line · this player ●8,788

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€25k
Aug 2013
Peak
€6M
Oct 2019
Model target
€2.5M
May 2026
Valuations
31
3 club changes
May 2026€2.5MDynamo MoscowValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €2.5M, Dynamo Moscow. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2013-08-26€25kCoton Sport FC de Garoua
2016-08-04€200kSCR Altach
2016-12-22€500kSCR Altach
2017-06-02€800kSCR Altach
2017-09-29€1.5MBSC Young Boys
2018-01-08€1.5MBSC Young Boys
2018-04-24€1.5MBSC Young Boys
2018-07-12€2.5MBSC Young Boys
2018-10-19€3.8MBSC Young Boys
2019-01-21€3.8MBSC Young Boys
2019-04-15€3.8MBSC Young Boys
2019-06-04€3.8MBSC Young Boys
2019-10-07€6MBSC Young Boys
2020-01-06€6MBSC Young Boys
2020-04-08€4.8MBSC Young Boys
2020-07-31€4.8MBSC Young Boys
2020-12-28€4.8MBSC Young Boys
2021-04-15€3.8MBSC Young Boys
2021-06-23€4.5MBSC Young Boys
2021-12-31€4.5MBSC Young Boys
2022-06-08€4.7MBSC Young Boys
2022-11-14€4MDynamo Moscow
2023-06-14€3MDynamo Moscow
2023-10-05€3.5MDynamo Moscow
2023-12-13€3.5MDynamo Moscow
2024-06-04€4.5MDynamo Moscow
2024-12-12€5MDynamo Moscow
2025-06-04€4MDynamo Moscow
2025-09-18€3.5MDynamo Moscow
2025-12-16€2.8MDynamo Moscow
2026-05-26€2.5MDynamo Moscow

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.350

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liga412 players · median €1M

Valued above 70% of the 412 Premier Liga players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€2.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 48% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€2.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Ngamaleu appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).