FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Victor

Edvardsen

CFSweden · Go Ahead Eagles

№ 265324Emerging €3.4M −1.46

Player dossierEredivisie

VictorEdvardsen

CFCentre-ForwardAttack

Club
Go Ahead Eagles
League
Eredivisie
Nationality
Sweden
Age
30
Height
185 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Edvardsen at €800k. Model A, which never saw Edvardsen during training, estimates €3.4M: the market value is 77% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×4.31. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €7.6M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −1.46A €3.4M▼ −2.26B €7.6M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
74
Minutes
5,888
Goals
13
Assists
15
Started
66/74
Min / app
80
Cards
13Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Edvardsen…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €800k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €800kModel A €3.4M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Victor Edvardsen's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 36th, Assists per 90 78th, Minutes, two years 96th, Starts 93rd, Minutes, last 365 days 89th, European club minutes 68th36thGoals78thAssists96thMinutes93rdStarts89thRecent68thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

5,888 this player2,242 attacker median96th percentile

450peer deciles · median line · this player ●8,788

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€75k
Aug 2015
Peak
€1.8M
Dec 2022
Model target
€800k
May 2026
Valuations
15
3 club changes
May 2026€800kGo Ahead EaglesValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €800k, Go Ahead Eagles. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2015-08-16€75kUtsiktens BK
2020-10-25€500kDegerfors IF
2021-06-09€700kDegerfors IF
2021-12-17€1MDegerfors IF
2022-06-24€1.2MDjurgårdens IF
2022-09-02€1.5MDjurgårdens IF
2022-12-14€1.8MDjurgårdens IF
2023-06-27€1.2MDjurgårdens IF
2023-12-15€900kGo Ahead Eagles
2024-05-31€800kGo Ahead Eagles
2024-12-17€900kGo Ahead Eagles
2025-05-28€1.3MGo Ahead Eagles
2025-12-02€1.3MGo Ahead Eagles
2026-03-11€1MGo Ahead Eagles
2026-05-28€800kGo Ahead Eagles

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−1.460

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Eredivisie425 players · median €1M

Valued above 40% of the 425 Eredivisie players.

€75k€500k€3M€20M€800kSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 25% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€800kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Edvardsen appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).