Aleksandr
Golovin
AMRussia · AS Monaco
Player dossierLigue 1
AleksandrGolovin
AMAttacking MidfieldMidfield
- Club
- AS Monaco
- League
- Ligue 1
- Nationality
- Russia
- Age
- 30
- Height
- 178 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 1 Jun 2026
Ligue 1Reading the valuation
The market values Golovin at €18M. Model A, which never saw Golovin during training, estimates €11.3M: the market value is 59% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.59. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €7.8M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 61
- Minutes
- 3,954
- Goals
- 8
- Assists
- 7
- Started
- 47/61
- Min / app
- 65
- Cards
- 6Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Golovin…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €18M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders
Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
27% this player0% midfielder median93rd percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €50k
- Aug 2013
- Peak
- €30M
- Sept 2018
- Model target
- €18M
- Jun 2026
- Valuations
- 37
- 2 club changes
Jun 2026: €18M, AS Monaco. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2013-08-19 | €50k | CSKA Moscow II |
| 2015-05-06 | €100k | CSKA Moscow II |
| 2015-07-24 | €350k | CSKA Moscow |
| 2015-08-25 | €400k | CSKA Moscow |
| 2016-01-06 | €500k | CSKA Moscow |
| 2016-06-01 | €3M | CSKA Moscow |
| 2016-07-01 | €2M | CSKA Moscow |
| 2016-10-16 | €2.5M | CSKA Moscow |
| 2016-12-27 | €3M | CSKA Moscow |
| 2017-06-01 | €5M | CSKA Moscow |
| 2017-07-01 | €6M | CSKA Moscow |
| 2017-10-02 | €8M | CSKA Moscow |
| 2017-12-23 | €10M | CSKA Moscow |
| 2018-06-06 | €18M | CSKA Moscow |
| 2018-07-15 | €25M | CSKA Moscow |
| 2018-09-06 | €30M | AS Monaco |
| 2018-12-17 | €30M | AS Monaco |
| 2019-06-03 | €25M | AS Monaco |
| 2019-12-19 | €25M | AS Monaco |
| 2020-04-08 | €20M | AS Monaco |
| 2020-10-12 | €20M | AS Monaco |
| 2021-01-07 | €19M | AS Monaco |
| 2021-04-09 | €23M | AS Monaco |
| 2021-05-26 | €28M | AS Monaco |
| 2021-12-16 | €25M | AS Monaco |
| 2022-05-30 | €25M | AS Monaco |
| 2022-11-02 | €22M | AS Monaco |
| 2023-03-27 | €25M | AS Monaco |
| 2023-06-27 | €28M | AS Monaco |
| 2023-10-16 | €30M | AS Monaco |
| 2023-12-18 | €30M | AS Monaco |
| 2024-06-03 | €30M | AS Monaco |
| 2024-12-10 | €30M | AS Monaco |
| 2025-03-24 | €25M | AS Monaco |
| 2025-06-03 | €20M | AS Monaco |
| 2025-12-15 | €18M | AS Monaco |
| 2026-06-01 | €18M | AS Monaco |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.465
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Ligue 1423 players · median €5M
Valued above 82% of the 423 Ligue 1 players.
See them in the Explorer →Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M
Valued above 87% of the 1,687 midfielders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Golovin appears
- TerminalLigue 1 in the Player Explorer
- TerminalLigue 1 on the League Landscape
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- HernándezLBParis Saint-Germain · Ligue 1€18M
- GbohoLWFC Toulouse · Ligue 1€18M
- MedinaCBOlympique Marseille · Ligue 1€18M
- BalerdiCBOlympique Marseille · Ligue 1€18M
- RabiotCMAC Milan · midfielders€18M
- BarreiroCMSL Benfica · midfielders€18M
- O'RileyCMBrighton & Hove Albion · midfielders€18M
- LuizCMAston Villa · midfielders€18M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).