FairValue

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Portrait of Ryan Manning

Ryan

Manning

LBIreland · Southampton FC

№ 262300Established €4.7M −0.52

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

RyanManning

LBLeft-BackDefender

Club
Southampton FC
League
Premier League
Nationality
Ireland
Age
29
Height
173 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Manning at €2.8M. Model A, which never saw Manning during training, estimates €4.7M: the market value is 41% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.68. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €596k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.52A €4.7M▲ +1.55B €596k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
32
Minutes
2,191
Goals
0
Assists
2
Started
26/32
Min / app
68
Cards
6Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Manning…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €2.8M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €2.8MModel A €4.7M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Ryan Manning's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 72nd, Minutes, two years 37th, Starts 47th, Minutes, last 365 days 13th, European club minutes 30th18thGoals72ndAssists37thMinutes47thStarts13thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.08 this player0.04 defender median72nd percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.58

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Feb 2017
Peak
€3.5M
Dec 2024
Model target
€2.8M
May 2026
Valuations
22
4 club changes
May 2026€2.8MSouthampton FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €2.8M, Southampton FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2017-02-27€100kQueens Park Rangers
2017-09-18€250kQueens Park Rangers
2018-09-24€250kRotherham United
2019-06-28€350kQueens Park Rangers
2019-10-17€1.5MQueens Park Rangers
2020-02-27€3MQueens Park Rangers
2020-04-08€2.4MQueens Park Rangers
2020-10-15€2.4MQueens Park Rangers
2020-12-22€2MSwansea City
2021-03-10€1.4MSwansea City
2021-06-30€1.2MSwansea City
2021-11-24€1.8MSwansea City
2022-05-13€2.2MSwansea City
2022-10-27€2.5MSwansea City
2023-06-01€2.5MSwansea City
2023-12-21€2.5MSouthampton FC
2024-03-07€3MSouthampton FC
2024-05-24€3MSouthampton FC
2024-12-16€3.5MSouthampton FC
2025-05-30€3MSouthampton FC
2025-12-03€2.8MSouthampton FC
2026-05-28€2.8MSouthampton FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.521

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 12% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€2.8MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 58% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€2.8MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Manning appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).