FairValue

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Portrait of Rúben Dias

Rúben

Dias

CBPortugal · Manchester City

№ 258004World Class €29.8M +0.61

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

RúbenDias

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Manchester City
League
Premier League
Nationality
Portugal
Age
29
Height
187 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Dias at €55M. Model A, which never saw Dias during training, estimates €29.8M: the market value is 84% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.84. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €25.3M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.61A €29.8M▲ +0.77B €25.3M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
76
Minutes
6,043
Goals
2
Assists
0
Started
67/76
Min / app
80
Cards
11Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Dias…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €55M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €55MModel A €29.8M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Rúben Dias's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 48th, Assists per 90 17th, Minutes, two years 93rd, Starts 64th, Minutes, last 365 days 86th, European club minutes 84th48thGoals17thAssists93rdMinutes64thStarts86thRecent84thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

6,043 this player2,860 defender median93rd percentile

451peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,111

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€25k
Jul 2015
Peak
€80M
Jun 2023
Model target
€55M
Jun 2026
Valuations
31
2 club changes
Jun 2026€55MManchester CityValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €55M, Manchester City. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2015-07-31€25kSL Benfica B
2016-03-14€350kSL Benfica B
2016-09-30€800kSL Benfica B
2017-06-30€1MSL Benfica B
2017-09-08€1MSL Benfica
2017-11-06€2.5MSL Benfica
2018-02-07€7MSL Benfica
2018-04-16€14MSL Benfica
2018-06-13€22MSL Benfica
2018-11-01€28MSL Benfica
2019-01-11€28MSL Benfica
2019-06-07€32MSL Benfica
2019-12-30€38MSL Benfica
2020-04-08€30.5MSL Benfica
2020-08-17€35MSL Benfica
2020-10-13€50MManchester City
2020-12-17€60MManchester City
2021-03-18€70MManchester City
2021-06-01€75MManchester City
2021-12-23€75MManchester City
2022-06-15€75MManchester City
2022-11-03€75MManchester City
2023-06-20€80MManchester City
2023-12-19€80MManchester City
2024-05-27€80MManchester City
2024-12-16€75MManchester City
2025-03-18€70MManchester City
2025-05-30€65MManchester City
2025-10-17€60MManchester City
2025-12-09€60MManchester City
2026-06-03€55MManchester City

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.612

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 91% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€55MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 99% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€55MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Dias appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).