FairValue

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Portrait of Álvaro García

Álvaro

García

LWSpain · Rayo Vallecano

№ 257062Emerging €2.1M −0.33

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierLaLiga

ÁlvaroGarcía

LWLeft WingerAttack

Club
Rayo Vallecano
League
LaLiga
Nationality
Spain
Age
33
Height
167 cm
Foot
Both
Valued
5 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values García at €1.5M. Model A, which never saw García during training, estimates €2.1M: the market value is 28% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.40. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.9M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.33A €2.1M▼ −0.24B €1.9M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
75
Minutes
5,028
Goals
13
Assists
13
Started
53/75
Min / app
67
Cards
7Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for García…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1.5MModel A €2.1M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Álvaro García's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 44th, Assists per 90 79th, Minutes, two years 91st, Starts 69th, Minutes, last 365 days 84th, European club minutes 58th44thGoals79thAssists91stMinutes69thStarts84thRecent58thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

5,028 this player2,242 attacker median91st percentile

450peer deciles · median line · this player ●8,788

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€300k
Jul 2013
Peak
€6M
Jun 2022
Model target
€1.5M
Jun 2026
Valuations
31
4 club changes
Jun 2026€1.5MRayo VallecanoValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €1.5M, Rayo Vallecano. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2013-07-22€300kGranada CF B
2014-01-23€400kGranada CF B
2014-08-04€200kGranada CF B
2015-01-08€200kRacing Santander
2016-07-15€300kGranada CF
2016-10-27€400kCádiz CF
2017-01-24€600kCádiz CF
2017-06-29€2MCádiz CF
2018-01-01€5MCádiz CF
2018-05-30€5MCádiz CF
2018-12-21€5MRayo Vallecano
2019-06-11€5MRayo Vallecano
2019-09-10€4MRayo Vallecano
2019-12-20€3MRayo Vallecano
2020-04-08€2.4MRayo Vallecano
2020-10-08€2.4MRayo Vallecano
2021-01-08€2.4MRayo Vallecano
2021-06-24€2.4MRayo Vallecano
2021-10-13€3MRayo Vallecano
2021-12-30€4MRayo Vallecano
2022-03-21€5MRayo Vallecano
2022-06-03€6MRayo Vallecano
2022-11-07€6MRayo Vallecano
2023-06-13€6MRayo Vallecano
2023-12-22€5MRayo Vallecano
2024-03-21€4MRayo Vallecano
2024-06-07€3MRayo Vallecano
2024-12-27€2.5MRayo Vallecano
2025-06-09€2MRayo Vallecano
2025-12-12€1.8MRayo Vallecano
2026-06-05€1.5MRayo Vallecano

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.334

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 20% of the 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€1.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 37% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€1.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where García appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).