FairValue

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Portrait of Ayoze Pérez

Ayoze

Pérez

CFSpain · Villarreal CF

№ 246968Established €6M −0.19

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierLaLiga

AyozePérez

CFCentre-ForwardAttack

Club
Villarreal CF
League
LaLiga
Nationality
Spain
Age
32
Height
178 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
5 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Pérez at €5M. Model A, which never saw Pérez during training, estimates €6M: the market value is 17% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.21. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €4.5M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.19A €6M▲ +0.10B €4.5M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
65
Minutes
3,645
Goals
29
Assists
9
Started
40/65
Min / app
56
Cards
8Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Pérez…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €5MModel A €6M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Ayoze Pérez's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 98th, Assists per 90 77th, Minutes, two years 76th, Starts 54th, Minutes, last 365 days 60th, European club minutes 67th98thGoals77thAssists76thMinutes54thStarts60thRecent67thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.72 this player0.26 attacker median98th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●1.17

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€300k
Oct 2013
Peak
€30M
Dec 2019
Model target
€5M
Jun 2026
Valuations
33
4 club changes
Jun 2026€5MVillarreal CFValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €5M, Villarreal CF. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2013-10-08€300kCD Tenerife
2014-02-06€600kCD Tenerife
2014-02-10€1MCD Tenerife
2014-08-12€2MNewcastle United
2015-02-12€5.5MNewcastle United
2015-07-01€7MNewcastle United
2016-02-09€8MNewcastle United
2016-09-01€8MNewcastle United
2017-02-27€8MNewcastle United
2017-06-28€8MNewcastle United
2018-01-02€8MNewcastle United
2018-05-28€10MNewcastle United
2018-12-19€10MNewcastle United
2019-06-13€20MNewcastle United
2019-12-10€30MLeicester City
2020-04-08€24MLeicester City
2020-10-13€20MLeicester City
2021-03-18€18MLeicester City
2021-06-08€18MLeicester City
2021-12-23€15MLeicester City
2022-03-29€12MLeicester City
2022-06-15€10MLeicester City
2022-09-15€8MLeicester City
2022-11-03€6MLeicester City
2023-06-13€6MReal Betis Balompié
2023-12-22€7MReal Betis Balompié
2024-06-07€7MReal Betis Balompié
2024-10-11€10MVillarreal CF
2024-12-27€10MVillarreal CF
2025-06-09€10MVillarreal CF
2025-10-02€7.5MVillarreal CF
2025-12-12€6MVillarreal CF
2026-06-05€5MVillarreal CF

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.188

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 57% of the 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€5MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 64% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Pérez appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).