FairValue

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Portrait of Saša Lukić

Saša

Lukić

CMSerbia · Fulham FC

№ 245056Elite €14M −0.34

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

SašaLukić

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
Fulham FC
League
Premier League
Nationality
Serbia
Age
29
Height
182 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Lukić at €10M. Model A, which never saw Lukić during training, estimates €14M: the market value is 28% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.40. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €3.1M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.34A €14M▲ +1.18B €3.1M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
64
Minutes
4,504
Goals
2
Assists
5
Started
53/64
Min / app
70
Cards
22Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Lukić…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €10M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €10MModel A €14M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Saša Lukić's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 29th, Assists per 90 52nd, Minutes, two years 81st, Starts 75th, Minutes, last 365 days 61st, European club minutes 30th29thGoals52ndAssists81stMinutes75thStarts61stRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

4,504 this player2,607 midfielder median81st percentile

451peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,624

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Nov 2014
Peak
€15M
Jun 2022
Model target
€10M
Jun 2026
Valuations
28
4 club changes
Jun 2026€10MFulham FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €10M, Fulham FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2014-11-11€100kFK Partizan Belgrade
2015-06-15€200kFK Partizan Belgrade
2015-11-23€600kFK Partizan Belgrade
2016-05-29€700kFK Partizan Belgrade
2017-01-02€700kTorino FC
2017-03-28€1.5MTorino FC
2017-06-08€2.2MTorino FC
2018-01-01€1MLevante UD
2018-05-30€1.5MLevante UD
2018-12-20€1.4MTorino FC
2019-03-01€2MTorino FC
2019-06-06€4MTorino FC
2019-12-12€4MTorino FC
2020-04-08€3.2MTorino FC
2020-08-25€3.5MTorino FC
2020-12-29€5MTorino FC
2021-06-03€5MTorino FC
2021-12-28€8MTorino FC
2022-03-15€12MTorino FC
2022-06-07€15MTorino FC
2022-11-11€13MTorino FC
2023-06-20€12MFulham FC
2023-12-19€10MFulham FC
2024-05-27€10MFulham FC
2024-12-16€10MFulham FC
2025-05-30€14MFulham FC
2025-12-09€12MFulham FC
2026-06-03€10MFulham FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.335

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 32% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€10MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 78% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€10MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Lukić appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).