FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Sergiy

Chobotenko

CBUkraine · Polissya Zhytomyr

№ 245021Emerging €2.2M −0.40

Player dossierPremier Liha

SergiyChobotenko

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Polissya Zhytomyr
League
Premier Liha
Nationality
Ukraine
Age
29
Height
193 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
2 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Chobotenko at €1.5M. Model A, which never saw Chobotenko during training, estimates €2.2M: the market value is 33% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.50. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €4.3M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.40A €2.2M▼ −1.04B €4.3M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
58
Minutes
5,100
Goals
2
Assists
2
Started
57/58
Min / app
88
Cards
5Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Chobotenko…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1.5MModel A €2.2M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Sergiy Chobotenko's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 53rd, Assists per 90 47th, Minutes, two years 84th, Starts 93rd, Minutes, last 365 days 79th, European club minutes 73rd53rdGoals47thAssists84thMinutes93rdStarts79thRecent73rdEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

98% this player83% defender median93rd percentile

18%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€200k
Aug 2018
Peak
€1.5M
Mar 2026
Model target
€1.5M
Jun 2026
Valuations
19
2 club changes
Jun 2026€1.5MPolissya ZhytomyrValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €1.5M, Polissya Zhytomyr. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2018-08-06€200kFC Mariupol
2018-12-10€400kFC Mariupol
2019-06-20€600kFC Mariupol
2020-01-08€700kFC Mariupol
2020-04-08€550kFC Mariupol
2020-09-04€700kFC Mariupol
2021-01-14€700kFC Mariupol
2021-06-07€700kFC Mariupol
2021-12-20€600kFC Mariupol
2022-05-18€600kFC Mariupol
2022-12-06€600kKolos Kovalivka
2023-06-21€600kKolos Kovalivka
2023-12-11€800kPolissya Zhytomyr
2024-06-06€1MPolissya Zhytomyr
2024-12-17€1MPolissya Zhytomyr
2025-06-10€1MPolissya Zhytomyr
2025-12-18€1MPolissya Zhytomyr
2026-03-23€1.5MPolissya Zhytomyr
2026-06-02€1.5MPolissya Zhytomyr

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.404

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liha414 players · median €400k

Valued above 84% of the 414 Premier Liha players.

€50k€200k€1M€5M€1.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 43% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Chobotenko appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).