FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Dereck

Kutesa

LWSwitzerland · AEK Athens

№ 237669Established €1.6M +0.76

Player dossierSuper League

DereckKutesa

LWLeft WingerAttack

Club
AEK Athens
League
Super League
Nationality
Switzerland
Age
28
Height
177 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Kutesa at €3.5M. Model A, which never saw Kutesa during training, estimates €1.6M: the market value is 113% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.13. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.1M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.76A €1.6M▲ +1.17B €1.1M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
22
Minutes
710
Goals
2
Assists
2
Started
7/22
Min / app
32
Cards
2Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Kutesa…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €3.5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €3.5MModel A €1.6M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Dereck Kutesa's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 48th, Assists per 90 83rd, Minutes, two years 9th, Starts 12th, Minutes, last 365 days 25th, European club minutes 96th48thGoals83rdAssists9thMinutes12thStarts25thRecent96thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

32% this player0% attacker median96th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€25k
Dec 2015
Peak
€5M
Jun 2025
Model target
€3.5M
Jun 2026
Valuations
29
7 club changes
Jun 2026€3.5MAEK AthensValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €3.5M, AEK Athens. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2015-12-18€25kServette FC
2016-07-16€400kFC Basel 1893
2016-12-20€400kFC Basel 1893
2017-07-12€400kFC Basel 1893
2018-01-08€400kFC Luzern
2018-04-24€400kFC Luzern
2018-07-12€400kFC St. Gallen 1879
2018-10-19€800kFC St. Gallen 1879
2019-01-21€800kFC St. Gallen 1879
2019-04-15€1MFC St. Gallen 1879
2019-06-04€1.8MFC St. Gallen 1879
2019-12-19€1.8MStade Reims
2020-04-08€1.4MStade Reims
2020-10-15€2MStade Reims
2021-06-04€2MStade Reims
2022-01-06€1.7MZulte Waregem
2022-04-12€1.2MZulte Waregem
2022-11-10€1.2MServette FC
2023-06-07€1.5MServette FC
2023-10-19€1.7MServette FC
2023-12-21€1.7MServette FC
2024-03-28€2MServette FC
2024-05-31€2MServette FC
2024-09-27€3MServette FC
2024-12-23€4.5MServette FC
2025-06-10€5MServette FC
2025-12-12€4.5MAEK Athens
2026-03-06€4MAEK Athens
2026-06-04€3.5MAEK Athens

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.757

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Super League356 players · median €600k

Valued above 88% of the 356 Super League players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€3.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 56% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€3.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Kutesa appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).