FairValue

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Atakan

Karazor

DMTürkiye · VfB Stuttgart

№ 232320Established €17.6M −0.79

Player dossierBundesliga

AtakanKarazor

DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield

Club
VfB Stuttgart
League
Bundesliga
Nationality
Türkiye
Age
29
Height
191 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
27 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Karazor at €8M. Model A, which never saw Karazor during training, estimates €17.6M: the market value is 55% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.20. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €20M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.79A €17.6M▼ −0.92B €20M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
90
Minutes
6,942
Goals
5
Assists
5
Started
80/90
Min / app
77
Cards
16Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Karazor…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €8M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €8MModel A €17.6M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Atakan Karazor's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 41st, Assists per 90 36th, Minutes, two years 98th, Starts 85th, Minutes, last 365 days 94th, European club minutes 82nd41stGoals36thAssists98thMinutes85thStarts94thRecent82ndEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

6,942 this player2,607 midfielder median98th percentile

451peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,624

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Jul 2015
Peak
€12M
May 2024
Model target
€8M
May 2026
Valuations
28
2 club changes
May 2026€8MVfB StuttgartValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €8M, VfB Stuttgart. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2015-07-01€50kBorussia Dortmund II
2016-01-15€75kBorussia Dortmund II
2016-07-15€125kBorussia Dortmund II
2016-11-20€150kBorussia Dortmund II
2017-07-01€200kHolstein Kiel
2018-01-22€150kHolstein Kiel
2018-06-19€150kHolstein Kiel
2019-01-08€300kHolstein Kiel
2019-03-13€650kHolstein Kiel
2019-06-12€1MHolstein Kiel
2019-12-13€1MVfB Stuttgart
2020-04-08€800kVfB Stuttgart
2020-07-15€1MVfB Stuttgart
2020-11-26€2MVfB Stuttgart
2021-02-10€2MVfB Stuttgart
2021-06-09€2MVfB Stuttgart
2021-12-22€3.5MVfB Stuttgart
2022-06-09€4.5MVfB Stuttgart
2022-11-09€4.5MVfB Stuttgart
2023-06-22€4MVfB Stuttgart
2023-10-18€5MVfB Stuttgart
2023-12-14€8MVfB Stuttgart
2024-03-27€10MVfB Stuttgart
2024-05-29€12MVfB Stuttgart
2024-12-20€12MVfB Stuttgart
2025-06-05€12MVfB Stuttgart
2025-12-19€9MVfB Stuttgart
2026-05-27€8MVfB Stuttgart

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.788

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Bundesliga451 players · median €5M

Valued above 60% of the 451 Bundesliga players.

€300k€2M€15M€100M€8MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 74% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€8MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Karazor appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).