FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Brandley

Kuwas

RWCuracao · FC Volendam

№ 232219Emerging €255k −0.02

Player dossierEredivisie

BrandleyKuwas

RWRight WingerAttack

Club
FC Volendam
League
Eredivisie
Nationality
Curacao
Age
33
Height
181 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Kuwas at €250k. Model A, which never saw Kuwas during training, estimates €255k: the market value is 2% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.02. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €485k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.02A €255k▼ −0.66B €485k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
35
Minutes
2,294
Goals
7
Assists
5
Started
26/35
Min / app
66
Cards
4Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Kuwas…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €250k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €250kModel A €255k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Brandley Kuwas's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 52nd, Assists per 90 69th, Minutes, two years 51st, Starts 75th, Minutes, last 365 days 82nd, European club minutes 28th52ndGoals69thAssists51stMinutes75thStarts82ndRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

2,294 this player1,301 attacker median82nd percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,703

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Aug 2012
Peak
€4.5M
Jun 2018
Model target
€250k
May 2026
Valuations
34
8 club changes
May 2026€250kFC VolendamValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €250k, FC Volendam. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2012-08-02€50kFC Volendam
2013-06-05€200kFC Volendam
2014-02-10€150kFC Volendam
2014-08-16€150kFC Volendam
2015-02-21€175kFC Volendam
2015-07-27€300kSBV Excelsior
2015-11-11€550kSBV Excelsior
2016-02-05€750kSBV Excelsior
2016-04-08€1MSBV Excelsior
2016-07-15€1MHeracles Almelo
2017-01-18€1.5MHeracles Almelo
2017-06-07€1.8MHeracles Almelo
2017-10-26€2.5MHeracles Almelo
2018-01-17€4MHeracles Almelo
2018-06-12€4.5MHeracles Almelo
2018-12-28€4.5MHeracles Almelo
2019-03-13€3.5MHeracles Almelo
2019-06-12€4MHeracles Almelo
2019-11-14€3.5MAl-Nasr SC (UAE)
2020-04-08€2.8MAl-Nasr SC (UAE)
2020-12-04€3MAl-Nasr SC (UAE)
2021-05-27€2.5MAl-Jazira Club
2021-12-31€1MMaccabi Tel Aviv
2022-06-04€700kMaccabi Tel Aviv
2022-10-27€700kGiresunspor
2023-03-14€550kGiresunspor
2023-06-08€550kGiresunspor
2023-10-20€450kGiresunspor
2023-12-29€400kWithout Club
2024-03-29€350kWithout Club
2024-12-10€350kFC Volendam
2025-06-09€300kFC Volendam
2025-12-02€300kFC Volendam
2026-05-28€250kFC Volendam

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.020

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Eredivisie425 players · median €1M

Valued above 5% of the 425 Eredivisie players.

€75k€500k€3M€20M€250kSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 6% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€250kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Kuwas appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).