Luca
Mazzitelli
CMItaly · Cagliari Calcio
Player dossierSerie A
LucaMazzitelli
CMCentral MidfieldMidfield
- Club
- Cagliari Calcio
- League
- Serie A
- Nationality
- Italy
- Age
- 30
- Height
- 184 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 29 May 2026
Reading the valuation
The market values Mazzitelli at €1.2M. Model A, which never saw Mazzitelli during training, estimates €1.9M: the market value is 36% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.57. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €709k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 32
- Minutes
- 1,237
- Goals
- 3
- Assists
- 3
- Started
- 14/32
- Min / app
- 39
- Cards
- 4Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Mazzitelli…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.2M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders
Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)
Assists per 90
Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.
0.22 this player0.09 midfielder median87th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €75k
- Nov 2012
- Peak
- €4M
- Oct 2018
- Model target
- €1.2M
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 30
- 12 club changes
May 2026: €1.2M, Cagliari Calcio. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2012-11-05 | €75k | Roma U19 |
| 2013-04-27 | €75k | Roma U19 |
| 2014-06-24 | €75k | Roma U19 |
| 2015-02-04 | €75k | FC Südtirol-Alto Adige |
| 2015-06-19 | €100k | FC Südtirol-Alto Adige |
| 2015-12-28 | €1M | Brescia Calcio |
| 2016-06-13 | €2M | Brescia Calcio |
| 2017-01-02 | €2M | US Sassuolo |
| 2017-06-08 | €2M | US Sassuolo |
| 2017-12-29 | €1.9M | US Sassuolo |
| 2018-06-07 | €1.8M | US Sassuolo |
| 2018-10-12 | €4M | Genoa CFC |
| 2018-12-20 | €4M | Genoa CFC |
| 2019-06-06 | €3.5M | Genoa CFC |
| 2019-12-12 | €3M | US Sassuolo |
| 2020-04-08 | €2.4M | Virtus Entella |
| 2020-08-21 | €2.5M | Virtus Entella |
| 2021-02-22 | €2.5M | AC Pisa 1909 |
| 2021-06-24 | €2.8M | AC Pisa 1909 |
| 2021-12-29 | €2.2M | AC Monza |
| 2022-06-06 | €2.4M | AC Monza |
| 2022-12-22 | €2.5M | Frosinone Calcio |
| 2023-06-12 | €3M | Frosinone Calcio |
| 2023-10-11 | €3.5M | Frosinone Calcio |
| 2023-12-20 | €4M | Frosinone Calcio |
| 2024-06-05 | €4M | Frosinone Calcio |
| 2024-12-18 | €2M | Como 1907 |
| 2025-06-02 | €1.5M | US Sassuolo |
| 2025-12-23 | €1.4M | Cagliari Calcio |
| 2026-05-29 | €1.2M | Cagliari Calcio |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.453
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Serie A507 players · median €5.5M
Valued above 11% of the 507 Serie A players.
See them in the Explorer →Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M
Valued above 35% of the 1,687 midfielders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Mazzitelli appears
- TerminalSerie A in the Player Explorer
- TerminalSerie A on the League Landscape
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- LykogiannisLBBologna FC 1909 · Serie A€1.2M
- TamèzeDMTorino FC · Serie A€1.2M
- PaleariGKTorino FC · Serie A€1.2M
- EkubanCFGenoa CFC · Serie A€1.2M
- WitselDMGirona FC · midfielders€1.2M
- HendersonDMBrentford FC · midfielders€1.2M
- CabellaAMFC Nantes · midfielders€1.2M
- OzdoevDMPAOK Thessaloniki · midfielders€1.2M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).