FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Kerim

Mrabti

AMSweden · KV Mechelen

№ 225569Emerging €1.2M +0.02

Player dossierPro League

KerimMrabti

AMAttacking MidfieldMidfield

Club
KV Mechelen
League
Pro League
Nationality
Sweden
Age
32
Height
175 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Mrabti at €1.2M. Model A, which never saw Mrabti during training, estimates €1.2M: the market value is 2% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.02. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.2M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.02A €1.2M▲ +0.01B €1.2M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
60
Minutes
4,322
Goals
7
Assists
5
Started
53/60
Min / app
72
Cards
11Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Mrabti…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.2M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1.2MModel A €1.2M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Kerim Mrabti's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 71st, Assists per 90 54th, Minutes, two years 79th, Starts 84th, Minutes, last 365 days 73rd, European club minutes 30th71stGoals54thAssists79thMinutes84thStarts73rdRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

88% this player69% midfielder median84th percentile

7%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Mar 2014
Peak
€3.5M
Apr 2022
Model target
€1.2M
Jun 2026
Valuations
29
3 club changes
Jun 2026€1.2MKV MechelenValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €1.2M, KV Mechelen. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2014-03-31€50kIK Sirius
2014-08-03€50kIK Sirius
2014-11-15€100kIK Sirius
2015-04-11€200kDjurgårdens IF
2015-06-14€400kDjurgårdens IF
2015-11-29€600kDjurgårdens IF
2016-06-17€400kDjurgårdens IF
2016-12-11€300kDjurgårdens IF
2017-06-20€600kDjurgårdens IF
2017-11-17€900kDjurgårdens IF
2018-06-20€900kDjurgårdens IF
2018-11-22€800kDjurgårdens IF
2019-06-28€800kBirmingham City
2020-02-27€800kBirmingham City
2020-04-08€650kBirmingham City
2020-10-16€800kKV Mechelen
2021-03-17€1.6MKV Mechelen
2021-06-07€2.4MKV Mechelen
2021-10-06€2MKV Mechelen
2022-01-06€2.6MKV Mechelen
2022-04-12€3.5MKV Mechelen
2022-11-04€3MKV Mechelen
2023-06-09€2.5MKV Mechelen
2023-12-19€2MKV Mechelen
2024-06-04€2.2MKV Mechelen
2024-12-11€2.2MKV Mechelen
2025-06-12€2MKV Mechelen
2025-12-10€1.5MKV Mechelen
2026-06-04€1.2MKV Mechelen

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.024

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Pro League350 players · median €1.8M

Valued above 34% of the 350 Pro League players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€1.2MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 35% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1.2MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Mrabti appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).