FairValue

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Portrait of Lucas Vázquez

Lucas

Vázquez

RBSpain · Bayer 04 Leverkusen

№ 221316Emerging €1.6M −0.08

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierBundesliga

LucasVázquez

RBRight-BackDefender

Club
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
League
Bundesliga
Nationality
Spain
Age
34
Height
173 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
27 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Vázquez at €1.5M. Model A, which never saw Vázquez during training, estimates €1.6M: the market value is 8% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.08. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.1M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.08A €1.6M▲ +0.32B €1.1M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
72
Minutes
4,209
Goals
3
Assists
10
Started
49/72
Min / app
58
Cards
12Y 1R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Vázquez…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1.5MModel A €1.6M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Lucas Vázquez's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 72nd, Assists per 90 96th, Minutes, two years 73rd, Starts 24th, Minutes, last 365 days 28th, European club minutes 88th72ndGoals96thAssists73rdMinutes24thStarts28thRecent88thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.21 this player0.04 defender median96th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.58

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€400k
Aug 2012
Peak
€25M
Mar 2018
Model target
€1.5M
May 2026
Valuations
36
3 club changes
May 2026€1.5MBayer 04 LeverkusenValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €1.5M, Bayer 04 Leverkusen. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2012-08-19€400kReal Madrid Castilla
2013-01-22€400kReal Madrid Castilla
2013-05-09€600kReal Madrid Castilla
2013-10-08€600kReal Madrid Castilla
2014-02-06€1MReal Madrid Castilla
2014-10-23€2MRCD Espanyol Barcelona
2015-01-23€3MRCD Espanyol Barcelona
2015-04-09€4MRCD Espanyol Barcelona
2015-07-01€5MRCD Espanyol Barcelona
2016-02-22€5MReal Madrid
2016-04-07€7.5MReal Madrid
2016-06-01€10MReal Madrid
2016-07-15€10MReal Madrid
2017-01-24€15MReal Madrid
2017-06-05€15MReal Madrid
2018-01-01€15MReal Madrid
2018-03-22€25MReal Madrid
2018-05-30€25MReal Madrid
2018-12-21€25MReal Madrid
2019-06-11€25MReal Madrid
2019-12-20€20MReal Madrid
2020-04-08€16MReal Madrid
2020-10-08€10MReal Madrid
2021-01-05€15MReal Madrid
2021-06-10€15MReal Madrid
2021-12-30€12MReal Madrid
2022-06-03€12MReal Madrid
2022-11-07€9MReal Madrid
2023-06-13€8MReal Madrid
2023-10-13€6MReal Madrid
2023-12-22€5MReal Madrid
2024-06-07€4MReal Madrid
2024-12-27€3.5MReal Madrid
2025-06-09€3MReal Madrid
2025-12-19€2.5MBayer 04 Leverkusen
2026-05-27€1.5MBayer 04 Leverkusen

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.081

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Bundesliga451 players · median €5M

Valued above 12% of the 451 Bundesliga players.

€300k€2M€15M€100M€1.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 43% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Vázquez appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).