FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Furkan

Soyalp

CMTürkiye · Kayserispor

№ 221285Emerging €688k −0.54

Player dossierSüper Lig

FurkanSoyalp

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
Kayserispor
League
Süper Lig
Nationality
Türkiye
Age
30
Height
175 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
21 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Soyalp at €400k. Model A, which never saw Soyalp during training, estimates €688k: the market value is 42% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.72. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €789k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.54A €688k▼ −0.68B €789k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
46
Minutes
2,359
Goals
3
Assists
1
Started
27/46
Min / app
51
Cards
9Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Soyalp…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €400k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €400kModel A €688k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Furkan Soyalp's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 61st, Assists per 90 23rd, Minutes, two years 45th, Starts 32nd, Minutes, last 365 days 63rd, European club minutes 30th61stGoals23rdAssists45thMinutes32ndStarts63rdRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

1,954 this player1,541 midfielder median63rd percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,800

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Jun 2012
Peak
€1.4M
Mar 2023
Model target
€400k
May 2026
Valuations
35
11 club changes
May 2026€400kKayserisporValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €400k, Kayserispor. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2012-06-07€50kBursaspor U17
2013-06-14€100kBursaspor U18
2014-07-24€100kBursaspor U21
2015-07-22€150kBursaspor
2016-01-18€150kBursaspor
2016-07-14€300kBursaspor
2017-01-10€200kBandirmaspor
2017-06-09€150kBursaspor
2018-02-12€200kBursaspor
2018-05-29€500kBursaspor
2019-01-04€700kBursaspor
2019-06-04€450kBursaspor
2020-01-03€450kGaziantep FK
2020-04-08€350kGaziantep FK
2020-08-04€400kBasaksehir FK
2020-12-23€400kGaziantep FK
2021-03-16€300kGaziantep FK
2021-05-21€300kGaziantep FK
2021-10-12€250kGaziantep FK
2022-01-04€250kGaziantep FK
2022-03-31€1.2MGaziantep FK
2022-06-01€1MGaziantep FK
2022-10-27€1MGaziantep FK
2023-03-14€1.4MAdana Demirspor
2023-06-08€1.2MAdana Demirspor
2023-09-27€1.2MGaziantep FK
2023-12-21€1.1MGaziantep FK
2024-03-15€1.1MGaziantep FK
2024-05-31€800kGaziantep FK
2024-10-04€700kGaziantep FK
2024-12-23€600kGaziantep FK
2025-03-20€475kGaziantep FK
2025-06-18€400kGaziantep FK
2025-12-17€400kKayserispor
2026-05-21€400kKayserispor

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.543

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Süper Lig428 players · median €1.2M

Valued above 15% of the 428 Süper Lig players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€400kSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 12% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€400kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Soyalp appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).