FairValue

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Lucas

Olaza

LBUruguay · FC Krasnodar

№ 216240Established €3.4M +0.04

Player dossierPremier Liga

LucasOlaza

LBLeft-BackDefender

Club
FC Krasnodar
League
Premier Liga
Nationality
Uruguay
Age
31
Height
173 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
26 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Olaza at €3.5M. Model A, which never saw Olaza during training, estimates €3.4M: the market value is 4% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.04. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.3M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.04A €3.4M▲ +0.98B €1.3M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
67
Minutes
5,472
Goals
2
Assists
6
Started
63/67
Min / app
82
Cards
8Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Olaza…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €3.5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €3.5MModel A €3.4M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Lucas Olaza's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 51st, Assists per 90 77th, Minutes, two years 89th, Starts 81st, Minutes, last 365 days 84th, European club minutes 30th51stGoals77thAssists89thMinutes81stStarts84thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

5,472 this player2,860 defender median89th percentile

451peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,111

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Feb 2012
Peak
€6M
Jan 2021
Model target
€3.5M
May 2026
Valuations
28
9 club changes
May 2026€3.5MFC KrasnodarValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €3.5M, FC Krasnodar. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2012-02-24€100kCA River Plate Montevideo
2012-08-13€150kCA River Plate Montevideo
2013-09-13€450kCA River Plate Montevideo
2014-08-07€500kAtlético Paranaense
2015-05-31€500kAtlético Paranaense
2016-09-09€400kDanubio FC
2017-02-22€450kDanubio FC
2017-10-09€600kCA Talleres
2018-05-08€2.5MCA Talleres
2018-12-18€3.5MCA Boca Juniors
2019-06-11€3.5MCelta de Vigo
2019-12-20€4MCelta de Vigo
2020-04-08€3.2MCelta de Vigo
2020-10-08€5MCelta de Vigo
2020-11-23€4MCelta de Vigo
2021-01-05€6MCelta de Vigo
2021-06-10€6MReal Valladolid CF
2021-10-13€4MReal Valladolid CF
2021-12-27€3MReal Valladolid CF
2022-06-03€2.5MElche CF
2022-11-07€2.5MReal Valladolid CF
2023-06-13€2.5MReal Valladolid CF
2023-12-13€3MFC Krasnodar
2024-06-04€3MFC Krasnodar
2024-12-12€3.5MFC Krasnodar
2025-06-04€4MFC Krasnodar
2025-12-16€4MFC Krasnodar
2026-05-26€3.5MFC Krasnodar

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.035

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liga412 players · median €1M

Valued above 81% of the 412 Premier Liga players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€3.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 63% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€3.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Olaza appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).