João
Afonso
CBPortugal · CD Tondela
Player dossierLiga Portugal
JoãoAfonso
CBCentre-BackDefender
- Club
- CD Tondela
- League
- Liga Portugal
- Nationality
- Portugal
- Age
- 36
- Height
- 188 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 28 May 2026
Reading the valuation
The market values Afonso at €50k. Model A, which never saw Afonso during training, estimates €74k: the market value is 33% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.49. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €167k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 14
- Minutes
- 698
- Goals
- 0
- Assists
- 0
- Started
- 7/14
- Min / app
- 50
- Cards
- 3Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Afonso…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €50k
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders
Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
0% this player0% defender median30th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €100k
- Jul 2014
- Peak
- €2.2M
- Jul 2015
- Model target
- €50k
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 27
- 6 club changes
May 2026: €50k, CD Tondela. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2014-07-25 | €100k | Vitória Guimarães SC |
| 2015-02-17 | €1.5M | Vitória Guimarães SC |
| 2015-07-01 | €2.2M | Vitória Guimarães SC |
| 2016-02-24 | €2M | Vitória Guimarães SC |
| 2016-07-29 | €1.5M | Vitória Guimarães SC |
| 2017-02-22 | €1.5M | GD Estoril Praia |
| 2017-06-26 | €1.5M | GD Estoril Praia |
| 2018-01-01 | €1M | Córdoba CF |
| 2018-06-13 | €1M | Vitória Guimarães SC |
| 2019-01-11 | €800k | Vitória Guimarães SC |
| 2019-06-07 | €700k | Vitória Guimarães SC |
| 2019-10-11 | €850k | CD Santa Clara |
| 2019-12-30 | €1M | CD Santa Clara |
| 2020-04-08 | €800k | CD Santa Clara |
| 2020-08-17 | €1M | CD Santa Clara |
| 2021-01-28 | €800k | CD Santa Clara |
| 2021-05-21 | €500k | CD Santa Clara |
| 2021-12-27 | €450k | CD Santa Clara |
| 2022-05-31 | €300k | CD Santa Clara |
| 2022-12-28 | €125k | SC União Torreense |
| 2023-06-28 | €100k | SC União Torreense |
| 2023-12-14 | €100k | SC União Torreense |
| 2024-06-20 | €100k | SC União Torreense |
| 2024-12-16 | €100k | CD Tondela |
| 2025-06-23 | €75k | CD Tondela |
| 2025-12-18 | €50k | CD Tondela |
| 2026-05-28 | €50k | CD Tondela |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.398
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M
Valued above 0% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.
See them in the Explorer →Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M
Valued above 0% of the 2,065 defenders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Afonso appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- NenêCFAvs Futebol · Liga Portugal€50k
- MatiasLWSC Farense · Liga Portugal€50k
- AurélioRBCD Nacional · Liga Portugal€50k
- BebetoRBCD Tondela · Liga Portugal€50k
- UtsievRBAkhmat Grozny · defenders€50k
- BotíaCBAE Kifisia · defenders€50k
- KöybaşıLBGöztepe · defenders€50k
- AlbornozLBVejle Boldklub · defenders€50k
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).