RubenAguilar

RBRight-BackDefender

Club: RC Lens
League: Ligue 1
Nationality: France
Age: 33
Height: 172 cm
Foot: Right
Valued: 1 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Aguilar at €2.5M. Model A, which never saw Aguilar during training, estimates €2.1M: the market value is 21% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.21. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €737k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).

Apps: 42
Minutes: 2,860
Goals: 3
Assists: 5
Started: 33/42
Min / app: 68
Cards: 8Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Aguilar…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €2.5M

Checking API

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.16 this player0.04 defender median89th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.58

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation: €400k; Nov 2014
Peak: €12M; Apr 2021
Model target: €2.5M; Jun 2026
Valuations: 29; 3 club changes

Jun 2026€2.5MRC LensValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €2.5M, RC Lens. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table

Date	Market value	Club
2014-11-20	€400k	AJ Auxerre
2015-06-06	€400k	AJ Auxerre
2016-02-04	€500k	AJ Auxerre
2016-07-13	€700k	AJ Auxerre
2017-03-20	€900k	AJ Auxerre
2017-06-15	€900k	AJ Auxerre
2018-01-24	€2.5M	Montpellier HSC
2018-03-20	€4M	Montpellier HSC
2018-06-04	€6M	Montpellier HSC
2018-12-17	€6M	Montpellier HSC
2019-06-03	€8M	Montpellier HSC
2019-12-19	€8M	AS Monaco
2020-04-08	€6.5M	AS Monaco
2020-10-15	€8M	AS Monaco
2021-01-07	€10M	AS Monaco
2021-04-09	€12M	AS Monaco
2021-06-04	€12M	AS Monaco
2021-10-08	€10M	AS Monaco
2021-12-16	€10M	AS Monaco
2022-05-30	€10M	AS Monaco
2022-11-02	€10M	AS Monaco
2023-06-27	€7M	AS Monaco
2023-10-16	€6M	RC Lens
2023-12-18	€6M	RC Lens
2024-06-03	€5M	RC Lens
2024-12-10	€4M	RC Lens
2025-06-03	€3.5M	RC Lens
2025-12-15	€3M	RC Lens
2026-06-01	€2.5M	RC Lens

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group: UEFA
Population gap, Model A: +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A: +0.194

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Ligue 1423 players · median €5M

Valued above 24% of the 423 Ligue 1 players.

See them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 54% of the 2,065 defenders.

See them in the Explorer →

Where Aguilar appears

TerminalLigue 1 in the Player Explorer
TerminalLigue 1 on the League Landscape

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).