FairValue

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Ryan

Thomas

DMNew Zealand · PEC Zwolle

№ 203357Emerging €495k +0.27

Player dossierEredivisie

RyanThomas

DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield

Club
PEC Zwolle
League
Eredivisie
Nationality
New Zealand
Age
31
Height
176 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Thomas at €650k. Model A, which never saw Thomas during training, estimates €495k: the market value is 31% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.31. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €992k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.27A €495k▼ −0.42B €992k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
45
Minutes
3,014
Goals
1
Assists
3
Started
36/45
Min / app
67
Cards
11Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Thomas…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €650k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €650kModel A €495k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Ryan Thomas's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 24th, Assists per 90 49th, Minutes, two years 58th, Starts 70th, Minutes, last 365 days 70th, European club minutes 30th24thGoals49thAssists58thMinutes70thStarts70thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

80% this player69% midfielder median70th percentile

7%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€25k
Oct 2011
Peak
€3M
Jan 2018
Model target
€650k
May 2026
Valuations
33
4 club changes
May 2026€650kPEC ZwolleValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €650k, PEC Zwolle. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2011-10-29€25kWaikato FC
2012-01-01€75kWaikato FC
2012-05-02€125kWaikato FC
2012-12-26€150kWaikato FC
2014-02-11€300kPEC Zwolle
2014-08-11€750kPEC Zwolle
2015-02-12€1.3MPEC Zwolle
2015-07-01€1.5MPEC Zwolle
2016-02-05€1.5MPEC Zwolle
2016-07-15€1.5MPEC Zwolle
2017-01-18€1.3MPEC Zwolle
2017-06-07€1.3MPEC Zwolle
2018-01-17€3MPEC Zwolle
2018-06-12€3MPEC Zwolle
2018-12-28€3MPSV Eindhoven
2019-06-12€2.5MPSV Eindhoven
2019-12-18€3MPSV Eindhoven
2020-04-08€2.4MPSV Eindhoven
2020-10-14€2.4MPSV Eindhoven
2021-03-09€3MPSV Eindhoven
2021-05-19€3MPSV Eindhoven
2022-01-05€3MPSV Eindhoven
2022-06-08€2.5MPSV Eindhoven
2022-10-07€2MWithout Club
2023-04-03€1.3MPEC Zwolle
2023-07-04€1.3MPEC Zwolle
2023-12-15€1MPEC Zwolle
2024-05-31€900kPEC Zwolle
2024-10-14€700kPEC Zwolle
2024-12-17€600kPEC Zwolle
2025-05-28€700kPEC Zwolle
2025-12-02€700kPEC Zwolle
2026-05-28€650kPEC Zwolle

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.273

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Eredivisie425 players · median €1M

Valued above 32% of the 425 Eredivisie players.

€75k€500k€3M€20M€650kSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 23% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€650kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Thomas appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).