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Mbemba
CBDR Congo · LOSC Lille
Player dossierLigue 1
ChancelMbemba
CBCentre-BackDefender
- Club
- LOSC Lille
- League
- Ligue 1
- Nationality
- DR Congo
- Age
- 31
- Height
- 182 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 1 Jun 2026
Ligue 1Reading the valuation
The market values Mbemba at €2M. Model A, which never saw Mbemba during training, estimates €2.3M: the market value is 14% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.16. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.1M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 21
- Minutes
- 1,657
- Goals
- 0
- Assists
- 1
- Started
- 16/21
- Min / app
- 79
- Cards
- 3Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Mbemba…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €2M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders
Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
43% this player0% defender median99th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €500k
- Aug 2013
- Peak
- €20M
- Mar 2023
- Model target
- €2M
- Jun 2026
- Valuations
- 36
- 4 club changes
Jun 2026: €2M, LOSC Lille. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2013-08-12 | €500k | RSC Anderlecht |
| 2013-10-08 | €1.5M | RSC Anderlecht |
| 2014-02-10 | €4M | RSC Anderlecht |
| 2014-06-28 | €4M | RSC Anderlecht |
| 2015-01-07 | €6M | RSC Anderlecht |
| 2015-06-24 | €8M | RSC Anderlecht |
| 2015-10-14 | €10M | Newcastle United |
| 2016-02-09 | €10M | Newcastle United |
| 2016-09-01 | €10M | Newcastle United |
| 2017-02-27 | €8M | Newcastle United |
| 2017-06-28 | €7M | Newcastle United |
| 2018-01-02 | €7M | Newcastle United |
| 2018-05-28 | €6M | Newcastle United |
| 2018-11-01 | €4.5M | FC Porto |
| 2019-01-11 | €4M | FC Porto |
| 2019-06-07 | €3.5M | FC Porto |
| 2019-12-30 | €4M | FC Porto |
| 2020-04-08 | €3.2M | FC Porto |
| 2020-08-17 | €8M | FC Porto |
| 2021-01-28 | €11M | FC Porto |
| 2021-03-25 | €13M | FC Porto |
| 2021-05-21 | €16M | FC Porto |
| 2021-12-27 | €15M | FC Porto |
| 2022-05-31 | €17M | FC Porto |
| 2022-11-02 | €17M | Olympique Marseille |
| 2023-03-27 | €20M | Olympique Marseille |
| 2023-06-27 | €20M | Olympique Marseille |
| 2023-10-16 | €15M | Olympique Marseille |
| 2023-12-18 | €15M | Olympique Marseille |
| 2024-06-03 | €15M | Olympique Marseille |
| 2024-10-07 | €8M | Olympique Marseille |
| 2024-12-10 | €5M | Olympique Marseille |
| 2025-03-24 | €3M | Olympique Marseille |
| 2025-06-03 | €2M | Olympique Marseille |
| 2025-12-15 | €2.5M | LOSC Lille |
| 2026-06-01 | €2M | LOSC Lille |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- non-UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.147
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Ligue 1423 players · median €5M
Valued above 20% of the 423 Ligue 1 players.
See them in the Explorer →Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M
Valued above 49% of the 2,065 defenders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Mbemba appears
- TerminalLigue 1 in the Player Explorer
- TerminalLigue 1 on the League Landscape
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- MasuakuLBRC Lens · Ligue 1€2M
- GbaminCBFC Metz · Ligue 1€2M
- AbdiLBOGC Nice · Ligue 1€2M
- KamaraCMStade Rennais FC · Ligue 1€2M
- HummelsCBAS Roma · defenders€2M
- GünterLBSC Freiburg · defenders€2M
- KohrCB1.FSV Mainz 05 · defenders€2M
- KayembeLBKRC Genk · defenders€2M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).