FairValue

Checking model

Esc
  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Rafa

Soares

LBPortugal · FC Famalicão

№ 198006Emerging €1.5M −0.40

Player dossierLiga Portugal

RafaSoares

LBLeft-BackDefender

Club
FC Famalicão
League
Liga Portugal
Nationality
Portugal
Age
31
Height
177 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Soares at €1M. Model A, which never saw Soares during training, estimates €1.5M: the market value is 33% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.49. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.1M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.40A €1.5M▼ −0.13B €1.1M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
53
Minutes
3,992
Goals
1
Assists
5
Started
46/53
Min / app
75
Cards
9Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Soares…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1MModel A €1.5M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Rafa Soares's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 42nd, Assists per 90 80th, Minutes, two years 69th, Starts 60th, Minutes, last 365 days 51st, European club minutes 61st42ndGoals80thAssists69thMinutes60thStarts51stRecent61stEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.11 this player0.04 defender median80th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.58

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€500k
Feb 2014
Peak
€3.5M
Jun 2019
Model target
€1M
May 2026
Valuations
26
8 club changes
May 2026€1MFC FamalicãoValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €1M, FC Famalicão. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2014-02-20€500kFC Porto B
2015-07-31€900kFC Porto B
2016-02-24€1MAcadémica Coimbra
2016-07-29€1.8MRio Ave FC
2017-02-22€1.8MRio Ave FC
2017-06-26€2MRio Ave FC
2018-02-07€1.5MPortimonense SAD
2018-06-13€1.5MPortimonense SAD
2018-11-01€2.5MVitória Guimarães SC
2019-01-11€2.5MVitória Guimarães SC
2019-06-07€3.5MVitória Guimarães SC
2019-12-30€3MVitória Guimarães SC
2020-04-08€2.4MSD Eibar
2020-10-08€2.4MSD Eibar
2021-01-05€1.8MSD Eibar
2021-06-10€1.6MSD Eibar
2021-12-27€2MVitória Guimarães SC
2022-05-31€2MVitória Guimarães SC
2022-11-07€1.8MPAOK Thessaloniki
2023-05-22€1.8MPAOK Thessaloniki
2023-12-20€1.5MPAOK Thessaloniki
2024-05-30€1.2MPAOK Thessaloniki
2024-12-19€1.2MFC Famalicão
2025-05-30€1.5MFC Famalicão
2025-12-18€1MFC Famalicão
2026-05-28€1MFC Famalicão

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.399

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M

Valued above 42% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 35% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Soares appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).