Florian
Grillitsch
DMAustria · SC Braga
Player dossierLiga Portugal
FlorianGrillitsch
DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield
- Club
- SC Braga
- League
- Liga Portugal
- Nationality
- Austria
- Age
- 30
- Height
- 186 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 28 May 2026
Liga PortugalReading the valuation
The market values Grillitsch at €2.5M. Model A, which never saw Grillitsch during training, estimates €4M: the market value is 38% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.61. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €4.8M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 60
- Minutes
- 3,666
- Goals
- 3
- Assists
- 2
- Started
- 43/60
- Min / app
- 61
- Cards
- 9Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Grillitsch…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €2.5M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders
Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
27% this player0% midfielder median93rd percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €50k
- Jan 2014
- Peak
- €25M
- Mar 2020
- Model target
- €2.5M
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 36
- 7 club changes
May 2026: €2.5M, SC Braga. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2014-01-29 | €50k | SV Werder Bremen U19 |
| 2014-02-20 | €75k | SV Werder Bremen U19 |
| 2014-08-18 | €75k | SV Werder Bremen II |
| 2015-02-08 | €100k | SV Werder Bremen II |
| 2015-07-01 | €200k | SV Werder Bremen |
| 2015-10-16 | €500k | SV Werder Bremen |
| 2016-02-15 | €1.5M | SV Werder Bremen |
| 2016-04-13 | €2.5M | SV Werder Bremen |
| 2016-07-22 | €4M | SV Werder Bremen |
| 2017-02-07 | €4M | SV Werder Bremen |
| 2017-06-19 | €4M | SV Werder Bremen |
| 2017-12-28 | €4.5M | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 2018-04-04 | €7.5M | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 2018-06-05 | €10M | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 2018-08-22 | €15M | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 2018-10-22 | €20M | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 2018-12-18 | €20M | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 2019-06-05 | €22M | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 2019-12-17 | €22M | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 2020-03-11 | €25M | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 2020-04-08 | €20M | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 2021-02-10 | €20M | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 2021-05-27 | €18M | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 2021-10-07 | €16M | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 2021-12-22 | €16M | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 2022-06-09 | €16M | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 2022-11-11 | €10M | Ajax Amsterdam |
| 2023-03-17 | €8M | Ajax Amsterdam |
| 2023-06-23 | €6.5M | Ajax Amsterdam |
| 2023-12-14 | €6.5M | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 2024-05-29 | €6.5M | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 2024-12-20 | €3.5M | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 2025-03-21 | €3M | Real Valladolid CF |
| 2025-06-09 | €2M | Real Valladolid CF |
| 2025-12-18 | €2M | SC Braga |
| 2026-05-28 | €2.5M | SC Braga |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.476
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M
Valued above 64% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.
See them in the Explorer →Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M
Valued above 51% of the 1,687 midfielders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Grillitsch appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- SamuAMVitória Guimarães SC · Liga Portugal€2.5M
- LivolantRWCasa Pia AC · Liga Portugal€2.5M
- VeronRWCD Nacional · Liga Portugal€2.5M
- MendesLBVitória Guimarães SC · Liga Portugal€2.5M
- EriksenAMVfL Wolfsburg · midfielders€2.5M
- GroßCMBrighton & Hove Albion · midfielders€2.5M
- BuyalskyiAMDynamo Kyiv · midfielders€2.5M
- TouréDMLe Havre AC · midfielders€2.5M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).