Fred
CMBrazil · Fenerbahce
Player dossierSüper Lig
Fred
CMCentral MidfieldMidfield
- Club
- Fenerbahce
- League
- Süper Lig
- Nationality
- Brazil
- Age
- 33
- Height
- 170 cm
- Foot
- Both
- Valued
- 21 May 2026
Süper LigReading the valuation
The market values Fred at €4.5M. Model A, which never saw Fred during training, estimates €3.4M: the market value is 33% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.33. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €3.6M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 85
- Minutes
- 5,872
- Goals
- 9
- Assists
- 11
- Started
- 64/85
- Min / app
- 69
- Cards
- 21Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Fred…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €4.5M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders
Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
29% this player0% midfielder median95th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €150k
- Jun 2012
- Peak
- €50M
- Aug 2018
- Model target
- €4.5M
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 41
- 3 club changes
May 2026: €4.5M, Fenerbahce. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2012-06-14 | €150k | Sport Club Internacional |
| 2012-07-29 | €500k | Sport Club Internacional |
| 2012-12-05 | €1M | Sport Club Internacional |
| 2013-06-15 | €5M | Sport Club Internacional |
| 2013-07-22 | €11M | Shakhtar Donetsk |
| 2014-06-30 | €12M | Shakhtar Donetsk |
| 2014-12-25 | €12M | Shakhtar Donetsk |
| 2015-06-07 | €12M | Shakhtar Donetsk |
| 2015-12-18 | €12M | Shakhtar Donetsk |
| 2016-07-21 | €10M | Shakhtar Donetsk |
| 2017-01-03 | €10M | Shakhtar Donetsk |
| 2017-06-26 | €8M | Shakhtar Donetsk |
| 2018-01-12 | €19M | Shakhtar Donetsk |
| 2018-05-14 | €32M | Shakhtar Donetsk |
| 2018-08-13 | €50M | Manchester United |
| 2018-12-19 | €40M | Manchester United |
| 2019-03-05 | €35M | Manchester United |
| 2019-06-13 | €30M | Manchester United |
| 2019-09-12 | €25M | Manchester United |
| 2019-12-10 | €22M | Manchester United |
| 2020-04-08 | €17.5M | Manchester United |
| 2020-10-13 | €17.5M | Manchester United |
| 2020-12-17 | €20M | Manchester United |
| 2021-03-18 | €22M | Manchester United |
| 2021-06-08 | €22M | Manchester United |
| 2021-12-23 | €22M | Manchester United |
| 2022-06-15 | €20M | Manchester United |
| 2022-11-03 | €20M | Manchester United |
| 2023-06-20 | €20M | Manchester United |
| 2023-09-27 | €20M | Fenerbahce |
| 2023-12-21 | €19M | Fenerbahce |
| 2024-03-15 | €19M | Fenerbahce |
| 2024-05-31 | €17M | Fenerbahce |
| 2024-10-04 | €15M | Fenerbahce |
| 2024-12-23 | €13M | Fenerbahce |
| 2025-03-20 | €12M | Fenerbahce |
| 2025-06-18 | €10M | Fenerbahce |
| 2025-10-01 | €9M | Fenerbahce |
| 2025-12-17 | €7M | Fenerbahce |
| 2026-03-05 | €6M | Fenerbahce |
| 2026-05-21 | €4.5M | Fenerbahce |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- non-UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.288
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Süper Lig428 players · median €1.2M
Valued above 80% of the 428 Süper Lig players.
See them in the Explorer →Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M
Valued above 64% of the 1,687 midfielders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Fred appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- LeminaDMGalatasaray · Süper Lig€4.5M
- BayoCFGaziantep FK · Süper Lig€4.5M
- BouchouariCMTrabzonspor · Süper Lig€4.5M
- HaritLWBasaksehir FK · Süper Lig€5M
- BentalebDMLOSC Lille · midfielders€4.5M
- PiotrowskiCMUdinese Calcio · midfielders€4.5M
- Lees-MelouDMParis FC · midfielders€4.5M
- Al-MusratiDMHellas Verona · midfielders€4.5M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).