FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Rodinei

RBBrazil · Olympiacos Piraeus

№ 185966Emerging €1.5M −0.62

Player dossierSuper League

Rodinei

RBRight-BackDefender

Club
Olympiacos Piraeus
League
Super League
Nationality
Brazil
Age
34
Height
175 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Rodinei at €800k. Model A, which never saw Rodinei during training, estimates €1.5M: the market value is 46% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.85. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.5M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.62A €1.5M▼ −0.64B €1.5M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
69
Minutes
5,141
Goals
5
Assists
17
Started
56/69
Min / app
75
Cards
9Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Rodinei…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €800k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €800kModel A €1.5M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Rodinei's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 82nd, Assists per 90 99th, Minutes, two years 85th, Starts 47th, Minutes, last 365 days 60th, European club minutes 94th82ndGoals99thAssists85thMinutes47thStarts60thRecent94thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.30 this player0.04 defender median99th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.58

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€700k
Dec 2014
Peak
€2M
May 2015
Model target
€800k
Jun 2026
Valuations
25
5 club changes
Jun 2026€800kOlympiacos PiraeusValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €800k, Olympiacos Piraeus. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2014-12-26€700kAvaí FC
2015-02-01€750kAssociação Atlética Ponte Preta
2015-05-31€2MAssociação Atlética Ponte Preta
2015-12-15€2MAssociação Atlética Ponte Preta
2016-05-27€1.8MCR Flamengo
2016-11-28€1.5MCR Flamengo
2017-12-07€1.5MCR Flamengo
2018-05-23€1.8MCR Flamengo
2019-02-18€2MCR Flamengo
2019-11-27€1.6MCR Flamengo
2020-04-08€1.3MSport Club Internacional
2020-09-09€1.3MSport Club Internacional
2021-02-09€1.2MSport Club Internacional
2021-05-28€1.2MSport Club Internacional
2021-12-17€1.2MCR Flamengo
2022-04-06€1MCR Flamengo
2022-08-19€1MCR Flamengo
2022-11-14€1.3MCR Flamengo
2023-05-22€1.3MOlympiacos Piraeus
2023-12-20€1.5MOlympiacos Piraeus
2024-05-30€1.5MOlympiacos Piraeus
2024-12-18€1.3MOlympiacos Piraeus
2025-05-23€1MOlympiacos Piraeus
2025-12-12€900kOlympiacos Piraeus
2026-06-04€800kOlympiacos Piraeus

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.616

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Super League356 players · median €600k

Valued above 60% of the 356 Super League players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€800kSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 29% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€800kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Rodinei appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).