FairValue

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João

Cancelo

RBPortugal · FC Barcelona

№ 182712Established €6.8M +0.16

Player dossierLaLiga

JoãoCancelo

RBRight-BackDefender

Club
FC Barcelona
League
LaLiga
Nationality
Portugal
Age
32
Height
182 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
5 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Cancelo at €8M. Model A, which never saw Cancelo during training, estimates €6.8M: the market value is 18% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.18. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.2M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.16A €6.8M▲ +1.31B €2.2M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
28
Minutes
1,840
Goals
2
Assists
5
Started
22/28
Min / app
66
Cards
4Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Cancelo…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €8M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €8MModel A €6.8M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

João Cancelo's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 86th, Assists per 90 98th, Minutes, two years 30th, Starts 41st, Minutes, last 365 days 56th, European club minutes 98th86thGoals98thAssists30thMinutes41stStarts56thRecent98thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

40% this player0% defender median98th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€1M
Nov 2012
Peak
€70M
Nov 2022
Model target
€8M
Jun 2026
Valuations
37
9 club changes
Jun 2026€8MFC BarcelonaValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €8M, FC Barcelona. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2012-11-10€1MSL Benfica U19
2013-11-08€1MSL Benfica B
2014-02-20€2MSL Benfica B
2014-10-22€2MValencia CF
2015-01-23€2MValencia CF
2015-07-01€5MValencia CF
2015-11-22€10MValencia CF
2016-02-22€10MValencia CF
2016-07-15€15MValencia CF
2016-10-27€20MValencia CF
2017-01-24€20MValencia CF
2017-06-05€20MValencia CF
2017-12-29€20MInter Milan
2018-03-24€25MInter Milan
2018-06-07€35MInter Milan
2018-10-12€40MJuventus FC
2018-12-20€55MJuventus FC
2019-06-06€55MJuventus FC
2019-12-10€50MManchester City
2020-03-09€45MManchester City
2020-04-08€36MManchester City
2020-10-13€36MManchester City
2021-03-18€50MManchester City
2021-06-01€55MManchester City
2021-12-23€60MManchester City
2022-06-15€65MManchester City
2022-11-03€70MManchester City
2023-03-29€60MBayern Munich
2023-06-22€50MBayern Munich
2023-12-22€40MFC Barcelona
2024-03-21€30MFC Barcelona
2024-06-07€25MFC Barcelona
2024-12-13€18MAl-Hilal SFC
2025-05-27€15MAl-Hilal SFC
2025-12-18€10MAl-Hilal SFC
2026-03-16€9MFC Barcelona
2026-06-05€8MFC Barcelona

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.161

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 68% of the 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€8MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 78% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€8MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Cancelo appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).