FairValue

Checking model

Esc
  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Aymeric

Laporte

CBSpain · Athletic Bilbao

№ 176553Established €1.6M +1.62

Player dossierLaLiga

AymericLaporte

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Athletic Bilbao
League
LaLiga
Nationality
Spain
Age
32
Height
191 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
5 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Laporte at €8M. Model A, which never saw Laporte during training, estimates €1.6M: the market value is 407% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×5.07. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.5M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +1.62A €1.6M▲ +1.68B €1.5M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
30
Minutes
2,434
Goals
0
Assists
2
Started
28/30
Min / app
81
Cards
4Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Laporte…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €8M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €8MModel A €1.6M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Aymeric Laporte's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 69th, Minutes, two years 42nd, Starts 79th, Minutes, last 365 days 74th, European club minutes 67th18thGoals69thAssists42ndMinutes79thStarts74thRecent67thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

93% this player83% defender median79th percentile

18%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€600k
Dec 2012
Peak
€75M
Jun 2019
Model target
€8M
Jun 2026
Valuations
35
3 club changes
Jun 2026€8MAthletic BilbaoValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €8M, Athletic Bilbao. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2012-12-17€600kAthletic Bilbao
2013-01-11€1MAthletic Bilbao
2013-06-12€2MAthletic Bilbao
2013-10-21€4MAthletic Bilbao
2014-01-23€10MAthletic Bilbao
2014-07-20€15MAthletic Bilbao
2015-01-23€15MAthletic Bilbao
2015-07-01€15MAthletic Bilbao
2015-11-22€20MAthletic Bilbao
2016-02-22€25MAthletic Bilbao
2016-07-15€25MAthletic Bilbao
2017-01-24€25MAthletic Bilbao
2017-06-05€25MAthletic Bilbao
2018-01-01€25MAthletic Bilbao
2018-03-23€50MManchester City
2018-05-28€50MManchester City
2018-12-19€60MManchester City
2019-06-13€75MManchester City
2019-12-10€75MManchester City
2020-04-08€60MManchester City
2020-10-13€60MManchester City
2021-03-18€50MManchester City
2021-05-31€45MManchester City
2021-12-23€45MManchester City
2022-06-15€45MManchester City
2022-11-03€38MManchester City
2023-03-16€30MManchester City
2023-06-20€25MManchester City
2023-12-15€25MAl-Nassr FC
2024-06-04€20MAl-Nassr FC
2024-12-13€18MAl-Nassr FC
2025-05-27€15MAl-Nassr FC
2025-10-02€10MAthletic Bilbao
2025-12-12€9MAthletic Bilbao
2026-06-05€8MAthletic Bilbao

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+1.622

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 68% of the 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€8MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 78% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€8MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Laporte appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).