FairValue

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Portrait of Davide Zappacosta

Davide

Zappacosta

RMItaly · Atalanta BC

№ 173859Established €4.2M −0.19

Close-up

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierSerie A

DavideZappacosta

RMRight MidfieldMidfield

Club
Atalanta BC
League
Serie A
Nationality
Italy
Age
33
Height
182 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
29 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Zappacosta at €3.5M. Model A, which never saw Zappacosta during training, estimates €4.2M: the market value is 17% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.21. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €4.1M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.19A €4.2M▼ −0.16B €4.1M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
91
Minutes
6,681
Goals
9
Assists
12
Started
79/91
Min / app
73
Cards
6Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Zappacosta…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €3.5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €3.5MModel A €4.2M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Davide Zappacosta's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 63rd, Assists per 90 74th, Minutes, two years 97th, Starts 82nd, Minutes, last 365 days 97th, European club minutes 88th63rdGoals74thAssists97thMinutes82ndStarts97thRecent88thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

3,607 this player1,541 midfielder median97th percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,800

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€75k
Jun 2011
Peak
€20M
Jan 2018
Model target
€3.5M
May 2026
Valuations
38
8 club changes
May 2026€3.5MAtalanta BCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €3.5M, Atalanta BC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2011-06-10€75kAtalanta Primavera
2011-12-15€100kAS Avellino 1912
2012-04-29€225kAS Avellino 1912
2013-03-01€275kAS Avellino 1912
2013-06-23€325kAS Avellino 1912
2014-01-29€1.3MAS Avellino 1912
2014-07-15€1.5MAtalanta BC
2014-11-08€3MAtalanta BC
2015-01-07€3MAtalanta BC
2015-03-20€4.5MAtalanta BC
2015-07-01€5.5MAtalanta BC
2016-01-04€5MTorino FC
2016-07-15€4.5MTorino FC
2017-01-02€6MTorino FC
2017-06-08€8.5MTorino FC
2017-10-23€15MChelsea FC
2018-01-02€20MChelsea FC
2018-05-28€20MChelsea FC
2018-12-19€18MChelsea FC
2019-06-13€15MChelsea FC
2019-12-12€15MAS Roma
2020-04-08€12MAS Roma
2020-08-25€10MChelsea FC
2020-12-29€7MGenoa CFC
2021-03-23€8MGenoa CFC
2021-06-03€8MGenoa CFC
2021-10-14€10MAtalanta BC
2021-12-28€10MAtalanta BC
2022-06-07€9MAtalanta BC
2022-11-11€7MAtalanta BC
2023-06-15€7MAtalanta BC
2023-12-20€6MAtalanta BC
2024-06-05€6MAtalanta BC
2024-12-18€6MAtalanta BC
2025-06-17€5MAtalanta BC
2025-10-07€3.5MAtalanta BC
2025-12-23€3.5MAtalanta BC
2026-05-29€3.5MAtalanta BC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.192

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Serie A507 players · median €5.5M

Valued above 34% of the 507 Serie A players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€3.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 59% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€3.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Zappacosta appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).