FairValue

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Portrait of Matt Doherty

Matt

Doherty

RBIreland · Wolverhampton Wanderers

№ 171679Emerging €940k +0.06

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

MattDoherty

RBRight-BackDefender

Club
Wolverhampton Wanderers
League
Premier League
Nationality
Ireland
Age
34
Height
185 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Doherty at €1M. Model A, which never saw Doherty during training, estimates €940k: the market value is 6% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.06. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €147k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.06A €940k▲ +1.92B €147k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
49
Minutes
3,332
Goals
2
Assists
1
Started
40/49
Min / app
68
Cards
10Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Doherty…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1MModel A €940k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Matt Doherty's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 66th, Assists per 90 42nd, Minutes, two years 59th, Starts 48th, Minutes, last 365 days 29th, European club minutes 30th66thGoals42ndAssists59thMinutes48thStarts29thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.05 this player0.03 defender median66th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.41

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Feb 2012
Peak
€20M
Dec 2019
Model target
€1M
Jun 2026
Valuations
32
4 club changes
Jun 2026€1MWolverhampton WanderersValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €1M, Wolverhampton Wanderers. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2012-02-02€50kHibernian FC
2012-07-19€150kWolverhampton Wanderers
2013-03-02€250kWolverhampton Wanderers
2013-07-12€300kWolverhampton Wanderers
2015-02-24€750kWolverhampton Wanderers
2015-09-24€750kWolverhampton Wanderers
2016-04-20€750kWolverhampton Wanderers
2016-09-01€750kWolverhampton Wanderers
2017-02-27€1.5MWolverhampton Wanderers
2017-09-18€1.5MWolverhampton Wanderers
2018-02-27€2MWolverhampton Wanderers
2018-08-13€2.5MWolverhampton Wanderers
2018-10-17€4.5MWolverhampton Wanderers
2018-12-19€10MWolverhampton Wanderers
2019-03-05€15MWolverhampton Wanderers
2019-06-13€15MWolverhampton Wanderers
2019-12-10€20MWolverhampton Wanderers
2020-04-08€16MWolverhampton Wanderers
2020-10-13€20MTottenham Hotspur
2021-03-18€18MTottenham Hotspur
2021-06-08€16MTottenham Hotspur
2021-12-23€12MTottenham Hotspur
2022-06-15€12MTottenham Hotspur
2022-11-03€12MTottenham Hotspur
2023-03-23€9MAtlético de Madrid
2023-06-13€5MAtlético de Madrid
2023-12-19€4MWolverhampton Wanderers
2024-05-27€3MWolverhampton Wanderers
2024-12-16€2.5MWolverhampton Wanderers
2025-05-30€2MWolverhampton Wanderers
2025-12-09€1.5MWolverhampton Wanderers
2026-06-03€1MWolverhampton Wanderers

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.062

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 6% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€1MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 35% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Doherty appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).