FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Salih

Uçan

CMTürkiye · Besiktas JK

№ 170838Emerging €830k −0.04

Player dossierSüper Lig

SalihUçan

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
Besiktas JK
League
Süper Lig
Nationality
Türkiye
Age
32
Height
182 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
21 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Uçan at €800k. Model A, which never saw Uçan during training, estimates €830k: the market value is 4% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.04. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €949k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.04A €830k▼ −0.17B €949k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
45
Minutes
1,163
Goals
1
Assists
1
Started
11/45
Min / app
26
Cards
5Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Uçan…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €800k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €800kModel A €830k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Salih Uçan's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 48th, Assists per 90 42nd, Minutes, two years 17th, Starts 3rd, Minutes, last 365 days 13th, European club minutes 74th48thGoals42ndAssists17thMinutes3rdStarts13thRecent74thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

11% this player0% midfielder median74th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Dec 2010
Peak
€5.5M
Jul 2014
Model target
€800k
May 2026
Valuations
44
10 club changes
May 2026€800kBesiktas JKValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €800k, Besiktas JK. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2010-12-14€50kBucaspor U21
2011-01-21€50kBucaspor U21
2011-12-29€150kBucaspor
2012-06-22€1MBucaspor
2013-01-06€1MFenerbahce
2013-06-15€3.5MFenerbahce
2014-01-27€3.5MFenerbahce
2014-07-23€5.5MAS Roma
2015-01-07€5MAS Roma
2015-06-30€4MAS Roma
2016-01-04€3MAS Roma
2016-07-15€3MFenerbahce
2017-01-10€2.5MFenerbahce
2017-06-09€2MFenerbahce
2018-01-08€2MFC Sion
2018-04-24€2MFC Sion
2018-12-20€1.8MFC Empoli
2019-06-06€1MFC Empoli
2020-01-03€1MAlanyaspor
2020-04-08€800kAlanyaspor
2020-08-04€1.2MAlanyaspor
2020-10-12€1.6MAlanyaspor
2020-12-23€3MAlanyaspor
2021-03-16€3.8MAlanyaspor
2021-05-21€4.6MAlanyaspor
2021-10-12€4.3MBesiktas JK
2022-01-04€3.2MBesiktas JK
2022-03-31€3.2MBasaksehir FK
2022-06-01€3MBasaksehir FK
2022-10-27€4.5MBesiktas JK
2023-03-14€4.7MBesiktas JK
2023-06-08€4.7MBesiktas JK
2023-09-27€5MBesiktas JK
2023-12-21€5MBesiktas JK
2024-03-15€4.5MBesiktas JK
2024-05-31€4MBesiktas JK
2024-10-04€3.6MBesiktas JK
2024-12-23€3MBesiktas JK
2025-03-20€2.2MBesiktas JK
2025-06-18€2MBesiktas JK
2025-10-01€1.5MBesiktas JK
2025-12-17€1.2MBesiktas JK
2026-03-05€1MBesiktas JK
2026-05-21€800kBesiktas JK

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.037

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Süper Lig428 players · median €1.2M

Valued above 33% of the 428 Süper Lig players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€800kSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 27% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€800kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Uçan appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).