FairValue

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Juan

Cruz

LBSpain · CA Osasuna

№ 169497Emerging €492k +0.71

Player dossierLaLiga

JuanCruz

LBLeft-BackDefender

Club
CA Osasuna
League
LaLiga
Nationality
Spain
Age
33
Height
182 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
5 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Cruz at €1M. Model A, which never saw Cruz during training, estimates €492k: the market value is 103% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.03. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €227k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.71A €492k▲ +1.48B €227k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
48
Minutes
2,680
Goals
0
Assists
0
Started
32/48
Min / app
56
Cards
5Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Cruz…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1MModel A €492k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Juan Cruz's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 17th, Minutes, two years 46th, Starts 23rd, Minutes, last 365 days 28th, European club minutes 30th18thGoals17thAssists46thMinutes23rdStarts28thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

2,680 this player2,860 defender median46th percentile

451peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,111

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Nov 2010
Peak
€2.5M
Oct 2020
Model target
€1M
Jun 2026
Valuations
33
6 club changes
Jun 2026€1MCA OsasunaValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €1M, CA Osasuna. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2010-11-16€50kBologna Primavera
2011-05-05€75kBologna Primavera
2012-03-07€75kBologna Primavera
2013-03-11€50kCarrarese Calcio 1908
2013-06-21€50kCarrarese Calcio 1908
2014-03-07€75kSan Marino
2014-07-15€100kSan Marino
2015-01-21€100kSan Marino
2015-06-22€125kSan Marino
2016-08-21€100kUD San Sebastián de los Reyes
2016-10-27€150kUD San Sebastián de los Reyes
2017-02-02€200kUD San Sebastián de los Reyes
2017-06-30€200kUD San Sebastián de los Reyes
2018-01-01€300kCF Rayo Majadahonda
2018-06-30€300kCF Rayo Majadahonda
2018-09-17€300kElche CF
2019-02-19€400kElche CF
2019-06-29€600kElche CF
2019-12-20€600kElche CF
2020-04-08€475kElche CF
2020-10-08€2.5MCA Osasuna
2021-01-05€2.5MCA Osasuna
2021-06-10€2.2MCA Osasuna
2021-12-30€2MCA Osasuna
2022-06-03€2MCA Osasuna
2022-11-07€2.5MCA Osasuna
2023-06-13€2.5MCA Osasuna
2023-12-22€2.5MCA Osasuna
2024-06-07€2.2MCA Osasuna
2024-12-27€1.8MCA Osasuna
2025-06-09€1.5MCA Osasuna
2025-12-12€1.2MCA Osasuna
2026-06-05€1MCA Osasuna

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.708

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 8% of the 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€1MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 35% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Cruz appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).