FairValue

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Federico

Ceccherini

CBItaly · US Cremonese

№ 163639Emerging €498k −0.22

Player dossierSerie A

FedericoCeccherini

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
US Cremonese
League
Serie A
Nationality
Italy
Age
34
Height
187 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
29 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Ceccherini at €400k. Model A, which never saw Ceccherini during training, estimates €498k: the market value is 20% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.25. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €215k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.22A €498k▲ +0.62B €215k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
9
Minutes
481
Goals
0
Assists
1
Started
6/9
Min / app
53
Cards
1Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Ceccherini…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €400k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €400kModel A €498k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Federico Ceccherini's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 94th, Minutes, two years 1st, Starts 23rd, Minutes, last 365 days 11th, European club minutes 30th18thGoals94thAssists1stMinutes23rdStarts11thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.19 this player0.04 defender median94th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.58

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Nov 2010
Peak
€4M
Jun 2022
Model target
€400k
May 2026
Valuations
34
6 club changes
May 2026€400kUS CremoneseValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €400k, US Cremonese. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2010-11-16€50kLivorno Berretti
2011-05-05€75kLivorno Berretti
2012-09-02€75kAS Livorno
2012-12-23€200kAS Livorno
2013-06-25€400kAS Livorno
2014-01-07€1MAS Livorno
2014-07-01€1.5MAS Livorno
2015-02-10€1.3MAS Livorno
2015-06-29€1.2MAS Livorno
2015-12-28€900kAS Livorno
2016-06-13€700kAS Livorno
2017-01-02€900kFC Crotone
2017-06-08€2MFC Crotone
2017-12-29€2MFC Crotone
2018-06-07€2.8MFC Crotone
2018-12-20€2.8MACF Fiorentina
2019-06-06€3.5MACF Fiorentina
2019-12-12€3.5MACF Fiorentina
2020-04-08€2.8MACF Fiorentina
2020-08-25€2.5MACF Fiorentina
2020-12-29€3MHellas Verona
2021-06-03€3.5MHellas Verona
2021-12-28€3.5MHellas Verona
2022-06-07€4MHellas Verona
2022-11-11€3MHellas Verona
2023-06-15€1.5MHellas Verona
2023-09-27€1.5MFatih Karagümrük
2023-12-21€1.5MFatih Karagümrük
2024-03-15€1.3MFatih Karagümrük
2024-05-31€1MFatih Karagümrük
2024-12-23€500kUS Cremonese
2025-06-02€400kUS Cremonese
2025-12-23€400kUS Cremonese
2026-05-29€400kUS Cremonese

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.220

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Serie A507 players · median €5.5M

Valued above 0% of the 507 Serie A players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€400kSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 14% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€400kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Ceccherini appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).