FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Patrick

Pflücke

RMGermany · Royal Charleroi SC

№ 159522Emerging €2.7M −0.42

Player dossierPro League

PatrickPflücke

RMRight MidfieldMidfield

Club
Royal Charleroi SC
League
Pro League
Nationality
Germany
Age
29
Height
170 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Pflücke at €1.8M. Model A, which never saw Pflücke during training, estimates €2.7M: the market value is 34% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.52. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €4.3M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.42A €2.7M▼ −0.87B €4.3M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
64
Minutes
4,121
Goals
8
Assists
12
Started
51/64
Min / app
64
Cards
1Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Pflücke…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.8M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1.8MModel A €2.7M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Patrick Pflücke's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 78th, Assists per 90 93rd, Minutes, two years 76th, Starts 70th, Minutes, last 365 days 84th, European club minutes 30th78thGoals93rdAssists76thMinutes70thStarts84thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.26 this player0.09 midfielder median93rd percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.74

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€500k
Aug 2014
Peak
€2M
Dec 2025
Model target
€1.8M
Jun 2026
Valuations
30
7 club changes
Jun 2026€1.8MRoyal Charleroi SCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €1.8M, Royal Charleroi SC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2014-08-21€500k1.FSV Mainz 05
2015-02-04€800k1.FSV Mainz 05
2015-07-01€400k1.FSV Mainz 05
2016-02-08€300k1.FSV Mainz 05
2016-07-22€300k1.FSV Mainz 05 II
2017-02-10€250k1.FSV Mainz 05 II
2017-06-14€200k1.FSV Mainz 05 II
2018-02-03€200kBorussia Dortmund II
2018-07-15€200kBorussia Dortmund II
2019-01-15€175kKFC Uerdingen 05
2019-06-14€200kKFC Uerdingen 05
2019-12-11€200kKFC Uerdingen 05
2020-04-03€150kKFC Uerdingen 05
2020-10-24€300kRoda JC Kerkrade
2020-12-31€375kRoda JC Kerkrade
2021-03-16€400kRoda JC Kerkrade
2021-10-12€400kRoda JC Kerkrade
2022-01-12€450kRoda JC Kerkrade
2022-03-24€650kRoda JC Kerkrade
2022-06-23€700kRoda JC Kerkrade
2022-11-10€700kServette FC
2023-06-07€900kServette FC
2023-10-23€1.5MKV Mechelen
2023-12-19€1.2MKV Mechelen
2024-06-04€1.2MKV Mechelen
2024-10-02€1.6MKV Mechelen
2024-12-11€1.8MKV Mechelen
2025-06-12€1.6MKV Mechelen
2025-12-10€2MRoyal Charleroi SC
2026-06-04€1.8MRoyal Charleroi SC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.421

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Pro League350 players · median €1.8M

Valued above 47% of the 350 Pro League players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€1.8MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 44% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1.8MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Pflücke appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).