FairValue

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Hauke

Wahl

CBGermany · FC St. Pauli

№ 154147Emerging €1.7M −0.11

Player dossierBundesliga

HaukeWahl

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
FC St. Pauli
League
Bundesliga
Nationality
Germany
Age
32
Height
189 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
27 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Wahl at €1.5M. Model A, which never saw Wahl during training, estimates €1.7M: the market value is 10% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.11. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.3M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.11A €1.7M▼ −0.42B €2.3M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
68
Minutes
6,052
Goals
3
Assists
1
Started
67/68
Min / app
89
Cards
2Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Wahl…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1.5MModel A €1.7M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Hauke Wahl's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 60th, Assists per 90 35th, Minutes, two years 93rd, Starts 94th, Minutes, last 365 days 87th, European club minutes 30th60thGoals35thAssists93rdMinutes94thStarts87thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

99% this player83% defender median94th percentile

18%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€150k
Aug 2013
Peak
€2M
Jun 2021
Model target
€1.5M
May 2026
Valuations
32
6 club changes
May 2026€1.5MFC St. PauliValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €1.5M, FC St. Pauli. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2013-08-19€150kHolstein Kiel
2014-01-24€300kHolstein Kiel
2014-06-30€300kHolstein Kiel
2014-11-06€350kHolstein Kiel
2015-03-07€450kHolstein Kiel
2015-07-01€600kHolstein Kiel
2015-10-22€800kSC Paderborn 07
2016-02-11€800kSC Paderborn 07
2016-07-22€800kFC Ingolstadt 04
2017-01-23€700k1.FC Heidenheim 1846
2017-06-27€700k1.FC Heidenheim 1846
2018-01-22€850kFC Ingolstadt 04
2018-06-19€700kFC Ingolstadt 04
2019-01-08€900kHolstein Kiel
2019-06-12€1MHolstein Kiel
2019-12-13€1.3MHolstein Kiel
2020-04-08€1MHolstein Kiel
2020-07-15€1.3MHolstein Kiel
2021-02-08€1.7MHolstein Kiel
2021-06-16€2MHolstein Kiel
2021-10-13€1.7MHolstein Kiel
2021-12-15€1.5MHolstein Kiel
2022-06-16€1.2MHolstein Kiel
2022-11-30€1.2MHolstein Kiel
2023-06-28€1.2MHolstein Kiel
2023-10-20€1.5MFC St. Pauli
2023-12-15€1.5MFC St. Pauli
2024-06-06€1.5MFC St. Pauli
2024-12-20€1.5MFC St. Pauli
2025-06-05€1.5MFC St. Pauli
2025-12-19€1.5MFC St. Pauli
2026-05-27€1.5MFC St. Pauli

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.109

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Bundesliga451 players · median €5M

Valued above 12% of the 451 Bundesliga players.

€300k€2M€15M€100M€1.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 43% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Wahl appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).