Karol
Mets
CBEstonia · FC St. Pauli
Player dossierBundesliga
KarolMets
CBCentre-BackDefender
- Club
- FC St. Pauli
- League
- Bundesliga
- Nationality
- Estonia
- Age
- 33
- Height
- 191 cm
- Foot
- Left
- Valued
- 27 May 2026
BundesligaReading the valuation
The market values Mets at €600k. Model A, which never saw Mets during training, estimates €788k: the market value is 24% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.31. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €724k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 38
- Minutes
- 3,314
- Goals
- 1
- Assists
- 0
- Started
- 37/38
- Min / app
- 87
- Cards
- 6Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Mets…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €600k
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders
Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)
Starts
Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.
97% this player83% defender median91st percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €25k
- Jan 2011
- Peak
- €1.3M
- Mar 2024
- Model target
- €600k
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 34
- 7 club changes
May 2026: €600k, FC St. Pauli. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2011-01-20 | €25k | FC Flora Tallinn |
| 2011-05-01 | €50k | FC Flora Tallinn |
| 2011-11-07 | €100k | FC Flora Tallinn |
| 2012-06-30 | €200k | FC Flora Tallinn |
| 2013-01-27 | €250k | FC Flora Tallinn |
| 2013-11-25 | €275k | FC Flora Tallinn |
| 2014-07-01 | €350k | FC Flora Tallinn |
| 2014-11-11 | €350k | FC Flora Tallinn |
| 2015-12-27 | €400k | Viking FK |
| 2016-12-18 | €400k | Viking FK |
| 2017-10-26 | €500k | NAC Breda |
| 2018-01-17 | €500k | NAC Breda |
| 2018-06-12 | €500k | NAC Breda |
| 2018-12-28 | €500k | NAC Breda |
| 2019-06-28 | €1M | AIK |
| 2019-11-20 | €1.2M | AIK |
| 2020-04-08 | €950k | AIK |
| 2020-08-05 | €900k | AIK |
| 2021-01-31 | €900k | Al-Ettifaq FC |
| 2021-06-18 | €600k | Al-Ettifaq FC |
| 2021-12-08 | €500k | CSKA-Sofia |
| 2022-06-08 | €900k | FC Zürich |
| 2022-11-10 | €500k | FC Zürich |
| 2023-03-31 | €700k | FC St. Pauli |
| 2023-06-28 | €800k | FC St. Pauli |
| 2023-10-20 | €1M | FC St. Pauli |
| 2023-12-15 | €1M | FC St. Pauli |
| 2024-03-22 | €1.3M | FC St. Pauli |
| 2024-06-06 | €1.3M | FC St. Pauli |
| 2024-12-20 | €1.3M | FC St. Pauli |
| 2025-06-05 | €1.3M | FC St. Pauli |
| 2025-10-14 | €900k | FC St. Pauli |
| 2025-12-19 | €800k | FC St. Pauli |
| 2026-05-27 | €600k | FC St. Pauli |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.272
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Bundesliga451 players · median €5M
Valued above 2% of the 451 Bundesliga players.
See them in the Explorer →Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M
Valued above 22% of the 2,065 defenders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Mets appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- JungCBSC Freiburg · Bundesliga€600k
- TrimmelRB1.FC Union Berlin · Bundesliga€600k
- BellCB1.FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga€600k
- BlaswichGKBayer 04 Leverkusen · Bundesliga€700k
- SilvestriRBBologna FC 1909 · defenders€600k
- YalçınCBEyüpspor · defenders€600k
- LópezCBGirona FC · defenders€600k
- BuatuCBGil Vicente FC · defenders€600k
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).