FairValue

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Charalampos

Mavrias

RBGreece · Panetolikos

№ 136647Emerging €276k +0.08

Player dossierSuper League

CharalamposMavrias

RBRight-BackDefender

Club
Panetolikos
League
Super League
Nationality
Greece
Age
32
Height
178 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Mavrias at €300k. Model A, which never saw Mavrias during training, estimates €276k: the market value is 9% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.09. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €348k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.08A €276k▼ −0.15B €348k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
42
Minutes
3,256
Goals
1
Assists
2
Started
40/42
Min / app
78
Cards
6Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Mavrias…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €300k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €300kModel A €276k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Charalampos Mavrias's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 46th, Assists per 90 60th, Minutes, two years 58th, Starts 85th, Minutes, last 365 days 38th, European club minutes 30th46thGoals60thAssists58thMinutes85thStarts38thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

95% this player83% defender median85th percentile

18%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€250k
Oct 2010
Peak
€3M
Sept 2013
Model target
€300k
Jun 2026
Valuations
34
11 club changes
Jun 2026€300kPanetolikosValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €300k, Panetolikos. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2010-10-05€250kUnknown
2011-02-28€300kPanathinaikos
2011-07-11€400kPanathinaikos
2011-11-21€500kPanathinaikos
2012-02-26€750kPanathinaikos
2012-09-21€1.5MPanathinaikos
2013-02-10€2MPanathinaikos
2013-09-18€3MSunderland AFC
2014-01-15€2.5MSunderland AFC
2014-08-12€1.5MSunderland AFC
2015-05-10€1.5MPanathinaikos
2016-02-11€1MFortuna Düsseldorf
2016-08-01€750kSunderland AFC
2017-01-23€700kKarlsruher SC
2017-06-27€500kKarlsruher SC
2017-10-23€500kHNK Rijeka
2018-03-18€300kHNK Rijeka
2018-12-24€250kHibernian FC
2019-06-25€350kOmonia Nicosia
2020-01-06€600kOmonia Nicosia
2020-04-08€475kOmonia Nicosia
2020-10-06€600kOmonia Nicosia
2021-05-14€500kOmonia Nicosia
2021-09-29€400kApollon Limassol
2022-01-11€400kApollon Limassol
2022-06-20€500kApollon Limassol
2023-01-10€500kApollon Limassol
2023-05-31€400kApollon Limassol
2023-12-20€350kPanetolikos
2024-05-30€350kPanetolikos
2024-12-18€350kPanetolikos
2025-05-23€300kPanetolikos
2025-12-12€300kPanetolikos
2026-06-04€300kPanetolikos

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.084

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Super League356 players · median €600k

Valued above 20% of the 356 Super League players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€300kSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 9% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€300kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Mavrias appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).