FairValue

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Lindsay

Rose

CBMauritius · Aris Thessaloniki

№ 135490Emerging €276k −0.79

Player dossierSuper League

LindsayRose

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Aris Thessaloniki
League
Super League
Nationality
Mauritius
Age
34
Height
184 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Rose at €125k. Model A, which never saw Rose during training, estimates €276k: the market value is 55% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.21. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €278k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.79A €276k▼ −0.80B €278k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
28
Minutes
1,872
Goals
1
Assists
0
Started
19/28
Min / app
67
Cards
8Y 1R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Rose…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €125k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €125kModel A €276k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Lindsay Rose's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 62nd, Assists per 90 17th, Minutes, two years 31st, Starts 24th, Minutes, last 365 days 44th, European club minutes 30th62ndGoals17thAssists31stMinutes24thStarts44thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.05 this player0.03 defender median62nd percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.41

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€250k
Aug 2010
Peak
€3.5M
Jun 2015
Model target
€125k
Jun 2026
Valuations
36
8 club changes
Jun 2026€125kAris ThessalonikiValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €125k, Aris Thessaloniki. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2010-08-01€250kStade Lavallois
2010-10-24€350kStade Lavallois
2011-05-30€500kStade Lavallois
2011-12-25€750kStade Lavallois
2012-06-01€1MStade Lavallois
2013-01-04€1.5MStade Lavallois
2013-05-30€2MValenciennes FC
2013-09-13€2.5MValenciennes FC
2014-01-14€3MValenciennes FC
2014-08-07€3MOlympique Lyon
2015-01-14€2.5MOlympique Lyon
2015-06-06€3.5MOlympique Lyon
2016-02-04€2.5MFC Lorient
2016-07-13€2MFC Lorient
2017-01-16€1.3MSC Bastia
2017-06-01€1.5MSC Bastia
2018-05-16€800kFC Lorient
2019-01-08€800kFC Lorient
2019-05-21€700kAris Thessaloniki
2019-12-18€700kAris Thessaloniki
2020-04-08€550kAris Thessaloniki
2020-08-04€700kAris Thessaloniki
2021-02-12€900kAris Thessaloniki
2021-05-30€1MAris Thessaloniki
2021-10-15€600kLegia Warszawa
2021-12-31€300kLegia Warszawa
2022-06-14€300kLegia Warszawa
2022-11-16€500kLegia Warszawa
2023-03-30€300kLegia Warszawa
2023-06-09€300kLegia Warszawa
2023-12-29€200kLegia Warszawa
2024-05-30€250kAris Thessaloniki
2024-12-18€200kAris Thessaloniki
2025-05-23€150kAris Thessaloniki
2025-12-12€150kAris Thessaloniki
2026-06-04€125kAris Thessaloniki

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.794

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Super League356 players · median €600k

Valued above 3% of the 356 Super League players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€125kSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 3% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€125kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Rose appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).