FairValue

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Samu

Saiz

AMSpain · Eyüpspor

№ 131506Emerging €236k −0.86

Player dossierSüper Lig

SamuSaiz

AMAttacking MidfieldMidfield

Club
Eyüpspor
League
Süper Lig
Nationality
Spain
Age
34
Height
174 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
17 Dec 2025

Reading the valuation

The market values Saiz at €100k. Model A, which never saw Saiz during training, estimates €236k: the market value is 58% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.36. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €283k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.86A €236k▼ −1.04B €283k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
20
Minutes
930
Goals
4
Assists
1
Started
10/20
Min / app
47
Cards
3Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Saiz…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €100k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €100kModel A €236k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Samu Saiz's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 98th, Assists per 90 51st, Minutes, two years 12th, Starts 21st, Minutes, last 365 days 2nd, European club minutes 30th98thGoals51stAssists12thMinutes21stStarts2ndRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.39 this player0.08 midfielder median98th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.93

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€300k
Aug 2015
Peak
€3.5M
Feb 2018
Model target
€100k
Dec 2025
Valuations
33
7 club changes
Dec 2025€100kEyüpsporValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Dec 2025: €100k, Eyüpspor. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2015-08-08€300kSD Huesca
2016-02-22€300kSD Huesca
2016-07-15€300kSD Huesca
2016-10-27€400kSD Huesca
2017-01-24€600kSD Huesca
2017-06-29€1MSD Huesca
2017-09-18€2.5MLeeds United
2018-02-27€3.5MLeeds United
2018-09-24€3.5MLeeds United
2019-02-28€2.5MGetafe CF
2019-06-11€2MGetafe CF
2019-08-21€2.5MGirona FC
2019-09-10€2MGirona FC
2019-12-20€2MGirona FC
2020-04-08€1.6MGirona FC
2020-10-08€1.6MGirona FC
2021-01-08€1.6MGirona FC
2021-06-24€1MGirona FC
2021-12-27€1MGirona FC
2022-06-29€1MGirona FC
2022-11-07€900kGirona FC
2023-03-14€900kSivasspor
2023-06-08€900kSivasspor
2023-09-27€900kSivasspor
2023-12-21€800kSivasspor
2024-03-26€650kEyüpspor
2024-06-13€400kEyüpspor
2024-10-04€400kEyüpspor
2024-12-23€325kEyüpspor
2025-04-02€250kPendikspor
2025-06-25€200kPendikspor
2025-10-01€150kEyüpspor
2025-12-17€100kEyüpspor

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.859

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Süper Lig428 players · median €1.2M

Valued above 1% of the 428 Süper Lig players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€100kSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 0% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€100kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Saiz appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).