PetrosMantalos

AMAttacking MidfieldMidfield

Club: AEK Athens
League: Super League
Nationality: Greece
Age: 34
Height: 177 cm
Foot: Right
Valued: 4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Mantalos at €800k. Model A, which never saw Mantalos during training, estimates €686k: the market value is 17% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.17. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €444k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).

Apps: 55
Minutes: 2,600
Goals: 5
Assists: 10
Started: 26/55
Min / app: 47
Cards: 13Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Mantalos…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €800k

Checking API

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.35 this player0.09 midfielder median98th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.74

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation: €100k; Nov 2009
Peak: €4M; Dec 2018
Model target: €800k; Jun 2026
Valuations: 36; 1 club change

Jun 2026€800kAEK AthensValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €800k, AEK Athens. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table

Date	Market value	Club
2009-11-02	€100k	Skoda Xanthi
2010-01-18	€100k	Skoda Xanthi
2011-02-22	€100k	Skoda Xanthi
2011-06-30	€150k	Skoda Xanthi
2011-11-14	€250k	Skoda Xanthi
2012-02-26	€600k	Skoda Xanthi
2012-09-21	€700k	Skoda Xanthi
2013-02-10	€800k	Skoda Xanthi
2014-03-28	€800k	Skoda Xanthi
2014-12-21	€1.2M	AEK Athens
2015-06-07	€1.5M	AEK Athens
2015-09-27	€1.5M	AEK Athens
2016-02-21	€1.8M	AEK Athens
2016-06-21	€1.8M	AEK Athens
2016-12-21	€2M	AEK Athens
2017-05-11	€3M	AEK Athens
2017-12-18	€3M	AEK Athens
2018-05-22	€3.5M	AEK Athens
2018-12-07	€4M	AEK Athens
2019-05-21	€4M	AEK Athens
2019-09-23	€3.5M	AEK Athens
2019-12-18	€3.5M	AEK Athens
2020-04-08	€2.8M	AEK Athens
2020-08-04	€4M	AEK Athens
2021-02-12	€4M	AEK Athens
2021-11-01	€3.2M	AEK Athens
2022-06-09	€3M	AEK Athens
2022-11-07	€2.5M	AEK Athens
2023-05-22	€2.5M	AEK Athens
2023-09-21	€2M	AEK Athens
2023-12-20	€2M	AEK Athens
2024-05-30	€1.8M	AEK Athens
2024-12-18	€1.5M	AEK Athens
2025-05-23	€1.2M	AEK Athens
2025-12-12	€1M	AEK Athens
2026-06-04	€800k	AEK Athens

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group: UEFA
Population gap, Model A: +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A: +0.154

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Super League356 players · median €600k

Valued above 60% of the 356 Super League players.

See them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 27% of the 1,687 midfielders.

See them in the Explorer →

Where Mantalos appears

TerminalSuper League in the Player Explorer
TerminalSuper League on the League Landscape

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).